[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING:
Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and Colombia Low
will cause easterly winds at the south-central Caribbean Sea, just
north of Colombia to reach near-gale to gale force late Thu
evening through early Fri morning. These winds are expected to
decrease to between strong and near-gale by late Fri morning.
However, they will become near-gale to gale again during Sat and
Sun nights. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft during gale conditions,
and at 7 to 10 ft during the day.

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING:
A 1008 mb low pressure well northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
near 24N36W is going to gradually drift westward over the next
several days. Meanwhile, a strong surface ridge is expected to
build southwestward from north of the Azores. Increasing gradient
will produce strong to gale southerly winds northeast of the low
near 30N35W Fri morning through Fri evening. Combined seas are
anticipated to range from 12 to 14 ft during gales.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecasts at the website
https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information about both warnings. Both forecasts are issued by the
National Hurricane Center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches southwestward, passes through the African
coast near the Guinea-Sierra Leone border to 05N19W. An ITCZ then
continues from 05N19W across EQ24W to 03S31W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the Sierra Leone coast, and up to 80 nm
along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Band area
to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are seen up to
60 nm northwest, and 130 nm southeast of the front. A surface
trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering scattered showers
and thunderstorms near the Yucatan Channel. A 1027 mb high over
northern Texas is channeling northerly winds behind the front,
moderate to fresh across the northern Gulf, fresh to strong with
locally near-gale over the west-central and southwest Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Seas at 4 to 7 ft are found across
the northern Gulf, and 8 to 11 ft at the west-central and
southwest Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa Bay, FL to
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and exit the basin early Thu
afternoon. Near-gale force northerly winds offshore Veracruz will
diminish to fresh to strong late tonight. Elsewhere, winds and
seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong
southerly return flow will set up this weekend in the northwestern
Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching
the northwestern Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far
northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall through Mon night.
Fresh to strong E winds will surge from the SW Atlantic through
the Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and
Sat night before diminishing Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information on a Gale Warning.

A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1029 mb Bermuda
High continues to maintain an easterly trade-wind regime for the
entire basin. Fresh to strong E to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10
ft are present at the south-central and central basin. Moderate to
fresh ENE to ESE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas exist at the north-
central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas
at 4 to 7 ft are found across the eastern and southwestern basin,
and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle ESE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh
to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through
tonight. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Thu,
enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night through early Fri,
then stall and dissipate. Strong NE to E winds are expected to
affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Sat through late Sun.
Similar winds will continue in the Windward Passage Mon and Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information on a Gale Warning.

Two upper-level lows, one south of the Azores near 29N33W and
the other southwest of the Azores near 27N43W are triggering
scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 26W and 33W,
and north of 24N between 42W and 48W. A weakening cold front
curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N47W
to 25N52W to 24N61W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 70
nm east and south of this feature. Converging southerly winds are
causing scattered showers over central and northeastern Florida,
and adjacent waters. Convergent trades are generating numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms near Belem and Sao Luis, Brazil
and nearby Atlantic waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are found
north of 28N between 75W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in northerly
swell are present north of 26N between 37W and 75W. Fresh to
strong NE to SE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen near the
Canary Islands north of 23N between the northwest African coast
and 37W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE trades
with 4 to 7 ft seas are noted from 20N to 28N between 75W and the
southeastern Florida coast, and from 05N to 26N between 45W and
the Lesser Antilles. Despite gentle to moderate winds surrounding
a broad 1008 mb low near 24N36W, 8 to 11 ft seas in northerly
swell are dominating from 15N to 26N between 30W and 52W. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh winds are north
of the weakening cold front. The front will shift southeast of
the area early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly flow is ongoing
across the northeastern and central Florida offshore waters ahead
of a strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast tonight. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to
the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon,
then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central
Cuba early Fri. It will locate from near 31N61W to 25N70W, and
become stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A tight
gradient will create fresh to strong NE to E winds and building
seas within about 180 nm north of the stationary front late Fri
night through early Sun, especially over the Bahamas, Windward
Passage and Straits of Florida. Conditions improve late Sun
afternoon into Sun night. A cold front may move off northeastern
Florida early next week.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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