[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A tight surface pressure exists between a NW Bahamas 1026 mb high
pressure center, and the comparatively lower surface pressures
that are in northern Colombia. Expect fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea today, increasing to
near gale to gale-force tonight. The sea heights will peak in
the range from 10 feet to 12 feet in the areas of the
comparatively fastest wind speeds.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A low pressure center and frontal boundary are forecast to move
eastward, to be near Bermuda on Sunday. This weather system will
bring fresh to strong westerly winds to the areas that are from
29N northward between 60W and 69W. This feature will move more
to the east and it will strengthen. The wind speeds will reach
near-gale to gale-force from 29N northward between 51W and 59W
on Sunday night. The sea heights are expected to peak from
13 feet to 15 feet in the areas of the comparatively fastest
wind speeds.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

The wave heights currently range from 8 feet to 10 feet from
25N northward between 30W and 60W, with a weakening cold front.
A second cold front will move through the north central Atlantic
Ocean during the next several days. Expect reinforcing large
NW swell, from 10 feet to 20 feet with periods ranging from
12 seconds to 15 seconds, into the waters that are from 20N
northward between 25W and 65W, from Saturday through Sunday.
The swell will be subsiding. The swell still will be higher
than 8 feet, into the tropical Atlantic Ocean by late Monday,
mainly from 55W eastward. Another round of large NW swell will
impact the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 35W and
55W by the middle of the next week.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
Offshore Waters Forecast, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details
about each event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N19W, to the Equator along 33W, to the Equator
along 46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Expect IFR to MVFR conditions, with isolated areas of
LIFR, in the coastal plains and the coastal waters,
and in inland areas, from SE Texas to just to the NW
of the metropolitan of Tampa in Florida. Expect VFR
conditions elsewhere for Florida. Dense fog advisories
have been issued in those areas also.

A stationary front passes through central Louisiana,
to the coastal plains of Texas, through south Texas into
northern sections of Mexico, curving northwestward beyond
west Texas. A surface trough covers the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, beyond the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. A second and NE-to-SW oriented surface
trough extends from the Deep South of Texas to 18N102W
in Mexico. An inland Florida 1026 mb high pressure center
is just off the NW side of Lake Okeechobee. Rainshowers
are possible throughout the area.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the SW
two-thirds of the area, and in the Straits of Florida.
The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds have been in the SE
corner, and in the SW corner. Light to gentle winds
have been elsewhere.

Patchy marine fog in the offshore waters of the
northern Gulf should dissipate gradually by late morning.
A diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula will
propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche tonight and Sun
night. This will create fresh to locally strong easterly winds
north and northwest of the northern Yucatan coast, and at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. As the 1026 mb high currently near the
Florida Big Bend area shifts eastward and strengthens, it will
allow fresh southerly flow to form across the northwestern and
central Gulf Sun evening through Mon, then become gentle to
moderate by Mon night. These winds might increase again and
reach fresh to strong near midweek next week ahead of a cold
front approaching the Texas coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, offshore Colombia.

A south Florida 1026 mb high pressure continues to support a
trade wind regime in the entire basin. Rainshowers are possible
in clusters of scattered to broken low level clouds that are
spread throughout the entire area. Strong to near-gale force
NE to ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to
10 feet, are in the south central sections. Fresh to strong
ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet,
are in the north central sections. Moderate ENE winds, and
sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the
eastern one-third of the region. Moderate to fresh ENE winds,
and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the
remainder of the area.

A 1026 mb high south Florida will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday morning. These
winds should decrease gradually in both speed and coverage
starting on Sunday afternoon. Winds off the coast of Colombia
will pulse to gale-force this evening through Sun morning. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba through Sun afternoon. Strong to near gale force
E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Mon and Tue
nights. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the NE
Caribbean  passages by Sun evening, and the eastern Caribbean by
Mon morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the upcoming gale-force winds and the significant swell event.

A strong cold front curves westward from northeast of Bermuda
across 31N54W to 29N67W, to a 1023 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N78W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 25N northward from
35W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N23W to 30N25W. A dissipating
stationary front continues from 30N25W to 25N38W. A surface
trough continues from 25N38W to 24N47W and 20N54W. A surface
trough is within 120 nm to the SE of the frontal boundary
from 40W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A 1020 mb high pressure
center is near 24N28W. A surface trough is along 43W/45W from
10N to 20N. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 20N
between 50W and 60W.

Fresh to strong NW to N winds are from 28N northward between
40W and 73W.  Moderate winds are to the north of the line
that runs from 20N40W beyond 31N12W. Moderate to fresh winds
are to the south of the line 26N73W 26N67W 22N55W 17N47W
19N34W 26N15W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet to the north of
the line 29N70W 28N54W 19N41W 23N33W 25N29W 31N17W. The sea
heights are reaching 12 feet, from 25N northward between 30W
and 50W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere.

A surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through
late tonight. A strong cold front is sinking south of 31N this
morning, and will be located along 25N by this evening. It
should then push eastward into the central Atlantic with its
tail remaining along 25N E of 65W while weakening. Strong
to minimal gale force northerly winds and rough to very rough
seas will follow the front. Looking ahead, a frontal low
pressure will move eastward to near Bermuda on Sun, and bring
fresh to strong westerly winds north of 28N east of 70W. These
winds will become near gale-force over the NE waters by Sunday
evening building rough seas.

$$
mt/gr
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