[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight gradient exists between
a 1026 mb NW Bahamas high pressure center and lower surface
pressures over northern Colombia. Expect fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean during the daytime hours,
and near-gale to gale-force trade winds at nighttime hours,
through Saturday night. The sea heights will peak in the range
from 10 to 12 feet, with the fastest wind speeds.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: Wave heights currently
range from 8 to 10 ft north of 25N between 30W and 60W, following
a weakening cold front. Another cold front will move across the
north central Atlantic over the next several days. This will
bring reinforcing large NW swell of 10 to 20 ft with 12 to 15
second periods into the waters north of 20N between 25W and 65W
Sat through Sun. Although subsiding, swell in excess of 8 ft will
reach into the tropical Atlantic by late Mon, mainly east of 55W.
Looking ahead, another round of large NW swell will impact the
waters north of 28N between 35W and 55W by mid week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W and extends to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W
to 02N25W then to 02N50W. A pair of troughs are analyzed W of the
ITCZ along 32W and 43W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
from 00N to 04N between 21W and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure over the
far northeast Gulf to the west-central Gulf. Dense fog advisories
are again in effect for the coastal waters from north Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, offshore platforms indicate 2 to 4
ft visibility in fog and haze over the northwest and north-central
Gulf. Surface troughs are located over the western coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula and over southern Florida. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicates fresh E winds across the
Straits of Florida, where wave heights are estimated to be 3 to 5
ft. Fresh to locally strong E winds with 4 to 6 ft waves are are
likely along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, between
the trough and the ridge to the north. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds with 4 to 6 ft waves in SE swell dominate the western Gulf,
with light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft waves elsewhere.

For the forecast, patchy dense marine fog will persist within 20
to 60 nm of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast until late this morning.
A daily trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the
late afternoons will propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche
each night through Sun night. This will create fresh to locally
strong easterly winds north and northwest of the northern Yucatan
coast, and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. As the 1026 mb high
currently near the Florida Big Bend area shifts eastward and
strengthens, it will allow fresh southerly flow to form across the
northwestern and central Gulf Sun evening through Mon, then
become gentle to moderate by Mon night. These winds might increase
again and reach fresh to strong near midweek next week ahead of a
cold front approaching the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the ongoing Gale Warning.

An 1026 mb high north of the region continues to support a NE to
E trade- wind regime across the entire basin. A few showers are
noted on regional radars moving quickly in the trade wind flow
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, as well as parts of the
Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands. Recent
scatterometer satellite passes indicated a small area of strong
winds off Cabo Beata on the south coast of the Dominican Republic,
and farther south in the Gulf of Venezuela. Near-gale to gale
force winds are ongoing off Colombia. Strong trade winds and 8 to
11 ft wave heights persist across the south-central and southwest
Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds persist in the Windward Passage
with wave heights to 8 ft, and Gulf of Honduras with wave heights
to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft waves are
evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the 1026 mb high north of the Bahamas will maintain
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sat
night. These winds should gradually decrease in both speed and
coverage starting Sun. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the
coast of Colombia during the evening and early morning hours
through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur
in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun afternoon.
Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras are
expected through Sat morning and Mon through Tue. Moderate long-
period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical
N Atlantic waters by late Sun afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the upcoming Central Atlantic Significant Swell event.

The subtropical ridge extends across the entire Atlantic north of
22N from the coast of northwest Africa to the Bahamas, except for
a cold front that reaches from just east of the Azores Islands to
31N25W then is stationary to about 25N40W. Recent altimeter
satellite passes show wave heights of 8 to 11 ft north of 28N
between 35W and 55W, likely in NW swell. Wave heights of 8 to 10
ft also follow the front, east of 45W. Elsewhere north of 22N,
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft wave heights are evident.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are possible south of 22N along the
northern coast of Haiti and near the approaches to the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted elsewhere south of 22N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to
locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage through Sun morning. A strong cold front will move south
of 31N tonight, extend from near 31N46W to 28N58W to 27N70W Sat
morning, then begin weakening Sat night while extending from
31N38W to 25N47W to 24N60W. Strong NW to N winds will follow
behind the front late tonight through Sat, mainly east of 71W
and north of 27N. Large N swell will propagate southward east of
65W Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, a possible frontal low
pressure should be located near Bermuda on Sun, which might
bring fresh to strong with locally near-gale westerly winds north
of 28N east of 67W. Large northerly swell behind this front
could impact waters N of 27N and E of 65W through the middle of
next week.

$$
Christensen/Chan
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