[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient prevails
over the northern Colombia area supporting fresh to strong winds
during the daytime hours, and gale force winds at nighttime.
Seas will peak in the range of 9 to 11 ft under the strongest
winds.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal low pressure system is
forecast to track eastward near Bermuda on Sun. This will bring
fresh to strong westerly winds north of 30N between 62W and 70W.
As this system moves farther east and strengthens, winds will
reach gale force north of 29N between 55W and 60W on Sun night.
Seas are expected to peak between 13 and 15 ft in the strongest
winds.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: Wave heights currently
range from 8 to 10 ft north of 25N between 35W and 65W,
following a weakening cold front. Another cold front will move
across the north central Atlantic over the next several days.
This will bring reinforcing large NW swell of 10 to 20 ft with 12
to 15 second periods into the waters north of 20N between 25W
and 65W Sat through Sun. Although subsiding, swell in excess of 8
ft will reach into the tropical Atlantic by late Mon, mainly
east of 55W. Looking ahead, another round of large NW swell will
impact the waters north of 28N between 35W and 55W by mid week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W to 02N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 07N between 12W-29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered near 30N86W. A diurnal surface trough is over the
southwestern Gulf with no significant weather. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft are noted at the northeastern Gulf.
Moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
exist at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing a moderate to fresh southerly
wind flow. This will continue to favor the developing of marine
fog across the northern Gulf, including the coastal waters of the
northern Gulf states. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects. The return flow will
increase to fresh to strong speeds by Thu night ahead of the next
cold front forecast to move across the Gulf region on Fri. Gales
may follow this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the ongoing Gale Warning.

Patchy trade-wind showers are noted across the eastern basin,
including waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Outside
the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas
of 8 to 9 ft are over the central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the high will continue to support fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean through Sun morning.
Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force
this evening through Sun morning. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through
Sun morning. All these winds should gradually decrease in both
speed and coverage starting Sun afternoon. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Wed.
These winds are forecast to persist Thu and Thu night while
increasing some. Long period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean
and passages by Sun evening into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the upcoming Gale Warning and significant swell.

A cold front curves westward from northeast of Bermuda across
31N46W to 27N61W to 31N75W. Scattered showers are noted along the
front. To the east, a pair of surface troughs were analyzed
between 20W and 50W. These troughs are the remnants of a frontal
boundary, with no significant convection at this time. A 1016 mb
high is analyzed near 23N26W.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are
present north of 26N between 65W and 79W. Light to gentle winds
with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail from the Bahamas northward between
75W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands,
gentle to moderate W to N winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
north of 22N between the African coast and 25W. To the south,
gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted from 05N to 20N/22N between the central African coast and
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 27N will
maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and
in the Windward Passage through late tonight. A strong cold front
sinking south of 31N will be located along 25N by this evening.
It should then push eastward into the central Atlantic with its
tail remaining along 25N E of 65W while weakening. Strong to
minimal gale force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas
will follow the front. Looking ahead, a frontal low pressure will
move eastward to near Bermuda on Sun, and bring strong to
minimal gale force westerly winds north of 29N east of 60W by
late Sun into Sun evening. Rough to very rough seas are also
expected in the wake of this system.

$$
ERA
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