[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230443
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
NW Colombia and the south-central Caribbean will maintain strong
to near-gale force easterly trade winds offshore Colombia during
the daytime hours, increasing to gale-force at night. Seas will
peak near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are
expected to continue nightly through early next week. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ then
stretches from 05N19W to 00N33W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed on satellite imagery south of 04N and
between 17W and 27W. Similar convection is noted south of 07N and
between 29N and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure system positioned near Bermuda continues
to exert its influence westward into the Gulf of Mexico. A few
light showers are seen in the Bay of Campeche, and western and NE
Gulf waters, while dry air is evident in the rest of the basin.
Moderate to locally strong anticyclonic winds dominate most of the
Gulf waters, with the strongest winds occurring south of 25N and
between 85W and 91W. Seas of 5-10 ft prevail across the basin,
except for 2-5 ft in the eastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche.
The highest seas are found in the NW Gulf.

The light return flow near the coastal waters of the northern Gulf
are conducive for the development of marine fog during the
overnight hours and lasting through the morning hours. Currently,
a dense fog advisory is in effect from the nearshore waters of southern
Texas to Alabama. Mariners should take precaution navigating these
waters as visibility may decrease below 1 nm. Also, areas of
smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico
are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda interacting with a strong extra-tropical low over the
U.S. Midwest is forcing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the W
and central Gulf of Mexico. As the extratropical low pulls
northeastward, these winds should diminish over most of the Gulf
on Thu. However, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan
Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE winds
over the SW Gulf nightly for the next several days. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker E to SE winds should prevail through Sun night.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the Texas and
Louisiana coast on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are prevalent across most of
the Caribbean Sea waters. The strongest winds are found in the
south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Outside of
the Gale warning area, seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Light to
moderate easterly breezes are noted in the lee of Cuba and SW
Caribbean, especially within 100 nm of Costa Rica. Seas in the
waters described are 2-6 ft.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia each evening/early morning
through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong
trades is expected to diminish beginning Sat night, as the high
pressure weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur
in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night.
Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
continue the next several days. Looking ahead, large long-period
N swell may begin impacting the tropical N Atlantic zones
starting on Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 27N60W and scattered moderate
convection is present within 120 nm ahead of the boundary,
especially north of 27N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
found behind the front, along with northerly swell producing seas
of 6-9 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by
a vast surface ridge. A 1025 mb high pressure center is positioned
near Bermuda and a modest gradient supports fresh to locally
strong easterly winds south of 23N and west of 70W. Seas in these
waters are 3-6 ft. Fresh southerly winds are evident off NE
Florida, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and moderate seas prevail west of 55W.

Another area where a moderate pressure gradient sustains fresh
N-NE winds is in the eastern Atlantic, primarily south of 20N and
east of 35W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther north, a
tigher gradient supports fresh to strong N-NE winds off Morocco,
along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the
Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades
north of Hispaniola and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through
Sat night. The W end of a weak cold front moving southeastward
across the NE forecast waters should reach from 26N55W to 25N65W
Thu morning and then dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold
front will move across the northern forecast waters Fri night,
extend from near 28N55W to 27N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, then
weaken as it reaches from near 23N55W to 24N65W Sun morning, and
dissipate Sun night. Strong NW winds are likely on Sat across the
NE waters behind the front, with large N swell propagating
southward E of 65W though Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold
front may arrive over the NE waters on Sun, causing strong breeze
conditions on both sides of the front north of 27N through Mon
night.

$$
DELGADO
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