[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
NW Colombia and the south-central Caribbean will maintain strong
to near-gale force NE to E trade winds offshore Colombia during
the daytime hours, increasing to gale-force at night. Seas will
peak near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are
expected to continue nightly through Mon night. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 01N32W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04S to 06N
E of 13W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between
11W and 23W, and from 05S to 06N between 25W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure center of 1024 mb located SW of Bermuda near
27N73W extends westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The
associated very dry environment supported by dry air aloft continues
to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across
most of the basin, except across the Veracruz offshore waters
where a surface trough is generating scattered showers. Lower
pressures have established across the western half of the basin
ahead of the next frontal system. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure W of 90W is supporting fresh to
locally strong SE to S winds from 22N to 27N W of 86W, and
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 9 ft basin-wide, being the
highest seas in the NW gulf. Otherwise, areas of smoke and haze
due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are confined to
the the far southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda interacting with a strong extratropical low over the U.S.
Midwest is forcing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the W and
central Gulf of Mexico. As the extratropical low pulls
northeastward, these winds should diminish over most of the Gulf
by Thu. However, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan
Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE winds
over the SW Gulf nightly for the next several days. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker E to SE winds should prevail through Sun night.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the Texas and
Louisiana coast on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over great portions of the central
Caribbean, with near gale-force near the coast of Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the east and
SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW part of
the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds are fresh
to strong. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the basin, except for
seas of 8 to 10 ft in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia each evening/early morning
through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades
is expected to diminish beginning Sat night, as the high pressure
weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Strong to near
gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue the next
several days. Looking ahead, large long-period N swell may begin
impacting the tropical N Atlantic zones starting on Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominates the western and eastern subtropical
Atlantic waters, which is supporting moderate to locally fresh
winds along the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly N
of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, and
over the tropical Atlantic S of 20N. The tail of a cold front is
over the central subtropical waters from 31N54W to 29N62W. This
front is generating scattered showers and tstms N of 23N between
40W and 57W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are between the Cabo
Verde Islands and downwind to about 11N, and also near the coast
of Morocco between 30N and 32N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft
across the Atlantic E of the Bahamas with the exception of 6 to 8
ft N of 29N between 47W and 60W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the
Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades
north of Hispaniola and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through
Sat night. The W end of a weak cold front moving southeastward
across the NE forecast waters should reach from 26N55W to 25N65W
Thu morning and then dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold
front will cross our northern border Fri night, extend from 28N55W
to 27N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, reach from 23N55W to 24N65W Sun
morning, and dissipate Sun night. Strong NW winds are likely on
Sat across the NE waters behind the front, with large N swell
propagating southward east of 65W though Mon night. Looking ahead,
another cold front may arrive over the NE waters on Sun, causing
strong breeze conditions on both sides of the front north of 27N
through Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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