[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to
maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just
offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest
winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the
forecast period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N16W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 01N30W tom 01N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N
between 05W and 20W, and from 00N to 06N between 40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure center of 1023 mb located S of Bermuda near
25N65W extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The associated
very dry environment supported by dry air loft as well continues
to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across
the basin. The pressure gradient has tightened over the west and
central Gulf due to lowering surface pressures in Texas and
northern Mexico. This has induced fresh to strong southerly winds
west of about 87W. Several buoy and platform observations
confirmed the presence of 25 to 30 kt southerly winds. Seas over
these waters are in the range of 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas
of 7 to 10 ft over the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the reminder of the Gulf with the
exception of fresh SE winds in the Yucatan Channel with seas of 4
to 5 ft.

Light and moist southerly flow over relatively cooler water has
created areas of fog, some of the dense type, over the Florida
Panhandle. A dense fog advisory is in effect for this area until
noon. Similar favorable conditions for marine fog to develop are
again expected tonight.

Areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern
Mexico are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned the high pressure
located S of Bermuda interacting with a strong extratropical low
over the U.S. Midwest is forcing fresh to strong SE to S winds
over the W and central Gulf of Mexico. As the extratropical low
pulls northeastward, these winds should diminish over most of the
Gulf by Thu. However, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan
Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE
winds over the SW Gulf nightly for the next several days.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds should prevail through Sun
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to
strong winds over the central Caribbean S of 18N, with the
strongest winds of 30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades are noted elsewhere across the east and central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW part of the
basin, increasing to fresh to strong W of 85W, including the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over the south-central Caribbean,
5 to 7 ft over the eastern part of the basin, and in the Gulf of
Honduras, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee
waters of Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow, are noted across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia each evening/early morning
through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades
is expected to diminish beginning Sat night, as the high pressure
weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Strong to near
gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue the next
few days before diminishing Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters.
Light and variables winds are under the influence of the ridge.
Winds increase to moderate to locally fresh along the southern
periphery of the ridge, particularly N of Hispaniola, including
the approach to the Windward Passage, and over the tropical
Atlantic S of 20N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are between the
Cabo Verde Islands and downwind to about 14N, and also near the
coast of Morocco between 30N and 32N. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft across the Atlantic E of the Bahamas with the exception
of 6 to 8 ft N of 29N between 53W and 72W, ans S of 20N E of 55W,
and near the coast of Morocco.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the
Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades
north of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage for
the next several days. The W end of a weak cold front will move
southeastward across the NE forecast waters tonight, and reach
from 26N55W to 25N65W Thu morning, and then dissipate by Fri
morning. A stronger cold front will cross our northern border Fri
night, extend from 29N55W to 27N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, and
reach from 23N55W to 23N65W Sun morning. Strong to near-gale NW
winds and large NW to N swell are likely on Sat across the NE
waters behind the front. Looking ahead, another cold front may
arrive over the NE waters on Sun.

$$
GR
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