[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Feb 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
NW Colombia and the south-central Caribbean will maintain strong
to near-gale force easterly trade winds offshore Colombia during
the daytime hours, increasing to gale-force at night. Seas will
peak near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Pulsing gales are
expected to continue nightly through early next week. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 05N20W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ to 01N23W and to continues roughly along the Equator to
40W and northwestward to near 03N50W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm N of the ITCZ
between 43W-47W and within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 44W-47W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ
between 23W-27W and also between 29W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure system positioned near Bermuda continues
to exert its influence westward into the Gulf of Mexico. A few
light showers are seen in the Bay of Campeche, and western and NE
Gulf waters, while dry air is evident over the rest of the basin.
Moderate to locally strong anticyclonic winds dominate most of
the Gulf waters, with the strongest winds occurring south of 25N
and between 85W and 91W. Seas of 6-9 ft due to SE to S swell are
over the NW Gulf per latest buoy observations, while seas of 5-7
ft are elsewhere are over the Gulf with the exception of slighter
lower seas of 4-6 ft in the central Bay of Campeche and in the
southwestern Gulf.

The light return moist southerly flow near the coastal waters of
the northern Gulf have resulted in the formation of areas of fog,
some dense, during the overnight hours. Currently, a dense fog
advisory is in effect from the nearshore waters of southern Texas
to Alabama. Mariners should take precaution navigating these
waters as visibility may decrease below 1 nm. The fog is expected
to last through the mid to late morning hours. Also, areas of
smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico
are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda interacting with an expansive area of deep low pressure
over the central U.S. is allowing for moderate to fresh SE to S
winds over the NW and north-central Gulf waters, and for fresh to
strong SE to S winds over most of the central waters. As the low
pressure continues to shift northeastward, these winds should
diminish by late this afternoon. However, a diurnal trough
developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day will induce
fresh to strong E to SE winds over the SW Gulf nightly for the
next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E to SE winds
should prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front
may emerge off of the Texas and Louisiana coast on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are prevalent across most of
the Caribbean Sea waters. The strongest winds are found in the
south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Outside of
the Gale warning area, seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Overnight
ASCAT data indicates gentle to moderate E to SE winds in the lee
of Cuba, except for light winds just offshore its central and
eastern coast. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are just offshore
Costa Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Seas over these waters are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and
Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia each evening and at night and
ending in the early mornings through Sat night. The coverage area
of the fresh to strong trades is expected to diminish beginning
late Sat night as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba
through Sun night. Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf
of Honduras will continue the next several days. Looking ahead,
large long- period N swell may begin impacting the tropical N
Atlantic zones starting on Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N44W to 26N61W. Satellite imagery
shows increasing scattered moderate convection within about 75 nm
SE of the front between 44W-49W, and ahead of the front N of 30N
between 38W-41W. An overnight ASCAT pass depicted mainly fresh
northerly winds behind the front. NW swell following behind the
front is producing 8-10 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a rather expansive areas of high pressure. A 1025 mb
high pressure center is positioned near Bermuda and a modest
gradient supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of
23N and west of 70W. Seas over these waters are 4-66 ft. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds are located off NE Florida, along with
seas of 3-4 ft. Moderate or lighter anticyclonic winds and
moderate seas prevail west of 55W.

Another area where a moderate pressure gradient sustains fresh
N-NE winds is in the eastern Atlantic, primarily south of 20N and
east of 35W. This gradient partly related to a 1022 mb high center
that is near 27N32W. Small pockets of strong NE winds are just
downwind of the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas over these waters are 5-7
ft, except for 6-8 ft seas between the Cabo Verde Islands and W
Africa. Farther north, a tighter gradient supports fresh to strong
N-NE winds off Morocco, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in
the basin, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the
Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades
north of Hispaniola and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through
Sat night. The W end of a weak cold front moving southeastward
across the NE forecast waters will reach from near 26N55W to
25N65W this morning and then dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger
cold front will move across the northern forecast waters Fri
night, extend from near 28N55W to 27N65W to 31N78W Sat morning,
then weaken as it reaches from near 23N55W to 24N65W Sun morning,
and dissipate Sun night. Strong NW winds are likely on Sat across
the NE waters behind the front, with large N swell propagating
southward E of 65W though Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold
front may arrive over the NE waters on Sun, causing strong breeze
conditions on both sides of the front north of 27N through Mon
night. NW swell producing large seas is expected behind this
front.

$$
Aguirre
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