[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure well N of the area and relatively lower pressure in
Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to
maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the late night
and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. This weather
pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week. Seas
are forecast to build to near 14 ft during the late night and
early morning hours winds have reach gale-force speeds. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N14W to the Equator at 30W, and continues to
02N40W and to the Equator near 49W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 14W-17W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of the ITCZ
between 18W-23W and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 42W-45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system is located just south of SE
Louisiana and dominates the Gulf of Mexico, suppressing the
development of convection. Mainly fresh NE to NE winds are
present over the offshore waters of NW Yucatan, especially south
of 22N and east of 93W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate
or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere.

Overnight ASCAT data indicates a surface trough in the far
southwest and western sections of the Gulf extending from near
26N97W to the central Bay of Campeche. Light and variable winds
are to its W, while fresh E winds are to its E to near 93W. Seas
W of the trough are 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft E of it to 93W.

Patchy fog is noted over sections of the western and northern
Gulf. Most of the fog should dissipate in the morning, some may
linger into the early afternoon. Conditions appear favorable for
marine fog to develop again tonight.

For the forecast, high pressured centered over the north-central
Gulf will shift southeastward to the southeastern Gulf by this
evening, then to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf
on Tue, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force Tue night and
Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf areas ahead of a frontal
system that will stall across Texas. Brief gusts to gale-force may
be possible. High pressure along with fresh return flow is
expected across most of the basin Thu, then over the western
section and also over the central section S of 26N from Thu night
through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
ongoing Gale Warning.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1032 mb
centered SE of Nova Scotia and lower pressure in NW Colombia
and in the south-central Caribbean continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
The strong winds are mainly confined to the Windward Passage, off
southern Hispaniola and especially in the south-central Caribbean.
Strong to gale-force winds are occurring off NW Colombia as
detailed in the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale
Warning area, seas are 7-11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds are evident in the remainder of the basin long with seas of
4-7 ft.

Isolated showers moving quickly in the trade wind flow are
possible E of 69W and also from 12N to 15N W of 69W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure N of
the area will help sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the
central Caribbean through tonight, then across the south-central
portion of the sea through early Thu. Afterward, a new area of
high pressure that will build over the western Atlantic in the
wake of a cold front will help maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will pulse
to gale-force off the coast of Colombia at night through the
period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba this morning, then again from Wed
afternoon through Fri night. Fresh to strong trade winds and high
seas prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N53W to 28N59W and to
27N67W. No deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary.
Overnight ASCAT data reveals fresh NE winds north of the front.
Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft due to a long-period NW to N
swell. Farther east, a broad surface trough has its axis extending
from 31N44W to 24N46W and to 17N46W. Isolated showers are possible
near the trough. A tight gradient to its W is producing fresh to
strong N to NE winds from 20N to 25N between 50W-53W along with
resultant seas of 9-10 ft. Another surface trough is to its E
from 26N36W to 17N38W. A sharp upper-level trough to its E is
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms roughly from 21N to
26N and between 30W and the trough. The pressure gradient between
this trough and high pressure of 1025 mb centered near the Azores
is supporting an area of fresh to locally strong E to SE winds
from 21N to 28N and between 31W and the trough. Seas with these
winds are in the range of about 6-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong
NE-E winds are present south of 20N and between 50W and the Lesser
Antilles. Elsewhere over the rest of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front mentioned above
will gradually dissipate through early this evening. Weakening
high pressure is centered across the NE waters and to the S of the
front. This pressure pattern will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds S of 22N today, then fresh winds tonight through Wed as high
pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds are expected over the
waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola from Wed
afternoon through the end of the week. These winds will seep
through the Windward Passage during this time. The tail-end of a
developing cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida today,
and affect the northern offshore waters with fresh to strong SW
to W winds tonight through early Wed.

$$
Aguirre
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