[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A 1032 mb high pressure system SE of Nova Scotia and comparatively
lower surface pressures in NW South America maintain a tight
pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This
supports strong to near-gale force NE to ENE wind speeds during
the daytime hours. Winds increase to gale-force during the late
night and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. This
weather pattern is expected to continue through most of this
week. Seas will build to near 14 ft during fastest wind speeds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 05N16W to 01S33W to 00N50W. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 06N and east of 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system is located just south of SE
Louisiana and dominates the Gulf of Mexico, suppressing the
development of convection. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are
found in the offshore waters of NW Yucatan, especially south of
22N and east of 93W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or
weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the north-central Gulf
will shift southeastward to the southeastern Gulf by Mon evening,
then to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf on Tue,
then strengthen strong to near gale-force Tue night into Wed
night, ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas.
High pressure along with fresh return flow is expected across most
of the basin Thu and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning.

The pressure gradient between the 1032 mb high pressure system centered
SE of Nova Scotia and lower pressures in NW South America continue
to support fresh to strong easterly breezes across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea. The strong winds are mainly confined to the
Windward Passage, off southern Hispaniola and especially in the
south-central Caribbean. Strong to gale-force winds are found off
NW Colombia, as detailed in the Special Features section. Outside
of the Gale Warning area, seas are 7-11 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds are evident in the remainder of the basin,
along with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area will help sustain
fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through Mon,
then across the south central portions of the sea through early
Thu. Afterward, a new area of high pressure that will build over
the western Atlantic in the wake of a cold front will help
maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the the central Caribbean
through Fri night. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of
Colombia at night through the period. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba
through Mon, then again Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong
trade winds and high seas prevailing east of the Leeward Islands
will diminish Mon and Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to 28N61W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to 27N69W and then continues as a
dissipating stationary front to the NW Bahamas. No deep convection
is noted near the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate moderate to fresh winds north of the
front. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther east, a broad
surface trough is located along 43W, from 17N to 31N. A nearby
upper level trough is inducing a few showers from 22N to 26N and
between 30W and 38W. The pressure gradient between the surface
trough and a 1032 mb subtropical ridge SE of Nova Scotia sustains
fresh to strong northerly winds north of 20N and between 44W and
60W. Seas the waters described are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas
near 24N50W. Fresh to strong SE winds are also seen on satellite
wind data on the eastern side of the surface trough, mainly north
of 20N and between 30W and 44W, due to the 1027 mb high pressure
system over the Azores. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to
locally strong NE-E winds are present south of 20N and between 50W
and the Lesser Antilles. In the rest of the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N53W
to 28N61W, where it becomes a stationary front to the NW Bahamas.
The cold front will continue southeastward through Mon and become
stationary. The entire frontal boundary will gradually dissipate
through Mon night. Weakening high pressure is centered across the
NE waters and to the S of the front. This pressure pattern will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds S of 22N through Mon, then
fresh winds Mon night through Wed as high pressure weakens. The
tail-end of a new cold front is forecast to emerge from NE Florida
on Mon morning, and affect the northern offshore waters with
moderate to fresh SW to W winds Mon night through early Wed.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net