[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that exists between strong high pressure that is well
to the north of the area, relatively lower surface pressure
that is in Colombia and in the far south central Caribbean Sea,
will continue to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea offshore Colombia during
the daytime hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force, and the
sea heights are forecast to reach 14 feet, during the late night
and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. This weather
pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 02N20W, to the Equator along 32W. The ITCZ
continues from 32W at the Equator, to the Equator along 44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
generally is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N82W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The wind speeds
are mainly gentle. Some moderate to isolated fresh winds are
in the SE corner, and in the west central Gulf, and on the
NE side of the high pressure center. The sea heights have been
ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet in the SW half of the area. The
sea heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet in the
NE half of the area.

1022 mb high pressure is centered over the north central Gulf,
and will shift southeastward to the southeastern Gulf by this
evening, then to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will develop across the western half of the
Gulf on Tue, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force Tue
night and Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf, ahead of a
frontal system that will stall across Texas. High pressure along
with fresh return flow is expected across most of the basin Thu,
then over the western section and also over the central section
S of 26N from Thu night through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details
about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are within 150 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 78W. Strong NE winds are
elsewhere in the central one-third of the area. Fresh NE
winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are in the western one-third of the area.
The sea heights range: from 7 feet to 10 feet between the
Mona Passage and 80W, from 5 to 7 feet elsewhere from the
Mona Passage eastward, and from 4 feet to 6 feet from 80W
westward.

Rainshowers are possible, in the areas of scattered to
broken low level to middle level clouds, that are spread
throughout the entire area.

Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N-27N will help
sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through tonight, then across the south-central portion of the
basin through early Thu. Afterward, a new area of high pressure
that will build over the western Atlantic in the wake of a cold
front will expand fresh to strong trade winds in the central
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will pulse to gale-force off
the coast of Colombia at night through the period. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and
lee of Cuba Wed afternoon through Fri night. Fresh to strong
trade winds and high seas prevailing east of the Leeward Islands
will diminish today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N50W, to 28N60W 28N66W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 25N northward from 50W
westward. Fresh NE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet
to 8 feet in long-period NW to N swell.

A surface trough is along 41W from 19N to 32N. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong is from
10N northward from 41W eastward. Fresh to strong N to NE winds,
and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 10 feet, are from 20N
to 25N between 50W and 53W. An upper level trough is about 420 nm
to the east of the 41W surface trough. Fresh to locally strong
E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet,
are from 21N to 28N and between 31W and the 41W surface trough.
Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are from 20N southward
between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate wind speeds or
slower, and moderate sea heights, are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front has dissipated across the NE waters, leaving
a weakening high pressure ridge extending E to W along 27N to the
NW Bahamas. This pressure pattern will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds S of 22N today, then fresh winds tonight through Wed,
as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds are
expected over the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and
Hispaniola from Wed afternoon through the end of the week, with
winds seeping through the Windward Passage during this time. The
tail-end of a developing cold front is forecast to emerge from
NE Florida today, and affect the northern offshore waters with
fresh to strong SW to W winds tonight through early Wed.

$$
mt/ss
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