[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure that exists over
Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime
E to NE gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through the weekend. Seas with these winds will
range from 10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from Cape
San Blas, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico at 2100 UTC. Northerly gale-
force winds are in the lee of the cold front S of 25N and offshore
of Veracruz, Mexico forecast to continue through Sat morning.
Higher gales to 40 kt are possible in the SW Gulf this evening and
tonight, before diminishing slightly to 35 kt in the early
morning hours. Very rough seas from of 12-17 ft are expected with
the gales in the lee of the front, with the highest seas forecast
in the SW Gulf. Winds will diminish below gale force tomorrow
afternoon. Seas will begin to subside Saturday evening, with
significant wave heights becoming lower than 8 ft by Sunday
evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for
the AGADIR and TARFAYA Offshore Zones, effective through 11/0600
UTC. Seas currently 8-12 ft will build to 13 ft tonight. For
more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W southwestward to 03N16W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from
03N21W to 00N30W to 01N36W and then from 00N41W to 00N50W.
Scattered showers are from 02S to 07N between 22W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front extends from Cape San Blas, Florida SW to
Veracruz, Mexico at 2100 UTC. Fresh to strong N winds are behind
the front N of 26N with 5 to 8 ft seas. Near gale to gale-force
winds are in the wake of the front S of 26N with 8 to 12 ft seas
and building. Ahead of the front, winds are gentle to moderate
with seas to 4 ft. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered
showers and tstms are affecting the waters ahead and behind the
front between 83W and 95W, N of 22N.

For the forecast, winds at the west-central Gulf and western Bay
of Campeche should decrease to between strong and near-gale by Sat
morning. However, frequent gusts to gale force are expected at
the central Bay of Campeche Sat. As the front reaches from the
Florida Big Bend area to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat afternoon,
strong to near-gale winds will shift eastward to the central and
northeastern Gulf. There will be frequent gusts to gale force at
the northeastern Gulf until Sun afternoon. Winds and seas should
gradually diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades are affecting most of the Caribbean E of
81W, including the Windward and Mona Passages. In the central
Caribbean, between 68W and 78W, winds are strong to near gale
force with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 5 to 9 ft are elsewhere in
the aforementioned region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in
the NW basin with seas to 6 ft, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where winds continue to be fresh to strong.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
the central and northeastern Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds at
the eastern Caribbean through this weekend. These winds will pulse
to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night through Sun
night. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras through this evening. Looking ahead,
a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sat afternoon and
from western Cuba to offshore from Honduras Sun morning, bringing
fresh to locally strong northerly winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING issue by Meteo-France.

The Bermuda High covers the SW and central Atlantic subtropical
waters, supporting the continuation of large and long period
mixed NE and E swell, with seas at 8 to 9 ft, south of 24N and
east of the southern Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong winds are
also in this region, including N of Hispaniola, and the approaches
of both the Mona and Windward passages. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds have begun along the Florida Seaboard N of West
Palm Beach as well as the NE Florida offshore waters ahead of an
approaching cold front, currently in the Gulf of Mexico. Farther
east, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N35W SW to 26N41W.
Fresh to strong N winds are in the wake of this front extending W
to 47W and N of 26N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are in the vicinity of the
front.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned swell affecting areas
from the Bahamas to Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles will
continue into Sat before gradually subsiding. A low pressure and
its associated cold front will move off Georgia and northeastern
Florida on Sat. The low will move northeastward, dragging the cold
front across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon night.
Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on
both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N through Mon night. There
is a chance for gale winds from Sun morning through Mon.

$$
Ramos
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