[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1705 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure that exists over
Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime
E to NE gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through the weekend. Seas with these winds will
range from 10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front surged into the
western Gulf of Mexico this morning, and as of 1500 UTC extends
from the Texas- Louisiana border to just south of Tampico, Mexico.
Northerly 35 kt gale-force winds have just begun near Tampico,
Mexico. Gales will spread southward in the lee of the cold front
reaching offshore of Veracruz, Mexico later this afternoon through
tomorrow morning. Higher gales to 40 kt are possible in the SW
Gulf this evening and tonight, before diminishing slightly to 35
kt in the early morning hours. Very rough seas from of 12-18 ft
are expected with the gales in the lee of the front, with the
highest seas forecast in the SW Gulf. Winds will diminish below
gale force tomorrow afternoon. Seas will begin to subside Saturday
evening, with significant wave heights becoming lower than 8 ft
by Sunday evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the AGADIR and TARFAYA Offshore Zones, effective through
11/0600 UTC. SE gales to 40 kt were observed earlier this morning by
scatterometer. Seas currently 8-10 ft will build to 13 ft today
and tonight. For more information, please see the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends the coast of Guinea near 08N13W
southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to
01N36W and then from 01N41W to the equator at 50W. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front surged into the western Gulf of Mexico this
morning, and as of 1500 UTC extends from the Texas-Louisiana
border to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Outside of the Gale
Warning, strong to near-gale force N winds are noted in waters
west of 94W. North of 26N in the lee of the front to 93W, N winds
are moderate to fresh. Seas are 4-6 ft behind the cold front, with
higher seas noted in the Gale Warning and described in Special
Features.

A stationary front extends across the central Gulf from 25N93W to
29N88W, where it becomes a cold front, then continues inland over
the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm of the stationary and cold front. Through today, the strong
cold front in the NW Gulf will absorb the stationary front and
move eastward across the basin this weekend. Moderate to locally
fresh S winds prevail in the central and eastern Gulf waters south
of the frontal boundary, with N winds of similar speeds north of
the frontal boundary. Seas are 2-4 ft in the central and eastern
Gulf waters.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale winds will shift eastward
with the front to the central Gulf by Sat evening, then
northeastern Gulf by Sun morning. Winds and seas should gradually
diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades continue in the central Caribbean, as
evident in the scatterometer data from this morning. Of note,
near-gale force trades have been observed in the GALE WARNING
area. Seas are 8-11 ft in the central Caribbean, with highest seas
in the GALE WARNING area off the coast of Colombia. Fresh trades
prevail in the eastern Caribbean, with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate
trades prevail in the western Caribbean, pulsing to fresh in the
Gulf of Honduras, with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
the central and northeastern Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds at
the eastern Caribbean through this weekend. These winds will pulse
to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night through Sun
night. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Looking ahead, a
cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late Sat and from
western Cuba to offshore from Honduras Sun morning, bringing fresh
to locally strong northerly winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING issue by Meteo-France.

Compared to earlier this week, conditions across the Atlantic
basin have greatly improved, with seas below 12 ft in all waters
south of 31N.

In the central Atlantic, a primary cold front extends from 31N38W
to 26N48W. A secondary cold front extends from 31N43W to 28N51W.
Seas exceed 8 ft in the lee of the fronts in NW swell, accompanied
by moderate to locally fresh NW winds. No convection is noted with
these fronts. South of 25N and west of 35W, the persistent fresh
to strong trades continue to sustain 8-10 ft seas in this area,
which includes the Atlantic exposures of the Bahamas, Turks and
Caicos, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles. Seas
will slowly subside into Saturday.

Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail in the East Atlantic outside
of the Gale Warning. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate.
Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, a low pressure and its associated cold
front will move off Georgia and northeastern Florida on Sat. The
low will move northeastward, dragging the cold front across the
western Atlantic Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near gale
force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the
front, mainly N of 27N through Mon night.

$$
Mahoney
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