[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure that exists over
Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime
E to NE gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia through the weekend. Seas with these winds
will range from 10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1017 mb has formed
offshore the Florida Big Bend near 28N87W along a cold front
extending SW to Veracruz, Mexico. A recent satellite
scatterometer pass revealed gale force N winds offshore Mexico
west of 95W and south of 24N, with strong gales recorded
offshore Veracruz. Strong N winds are elsewhere west of the
front over the western and north-central Gulf, including
offshore the FL Panhandle. Gale force winds will persist into
Sat afternoon. Then, the low will move NE out of the Gulf while
strengthening, and gales will likely develop in the NE Gulf in
its wake. Rough seas of 12 to 15 ft will be present in and near
these areas of gale-force winds. Winds and seas should gradually
diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure and its associated
cold front will move off Georgia and northeastern Florida Sat.
As the low moves NE away from the area, the cold front will drag
across the western Atlantic through Mon night. Strong winds and
rough seas will occur on both sides of the front, mainly N of
27N, into Tue. N of 29N, gales are likely on both sides of the
front Sun through Mon. These winds will generate 8 to 10 ft seas
north of the Bahamas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
southwestward to 03N16W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from
06N16W to 03N20W to 00N30W to 01N40W and to the coast of Brazil
near 00S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to
04N between 23W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the SW Gulf.

Outside the gale force winds, moderate S-SE winds are ahead of
the cold front north of 25N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Moderate
to fresh winds are noted in the Straits of Florida east of Key
west. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are affecting the waters ahead and behind the
front between 83W and 95W, N of 24N.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force W to NW winds and 8
to 10 ft will cover the west-central Gulf, mainly west of 85W
and the Bay of Campeche, tomorrow afternoon. The low pressure
center will move inland over the FL Panhandle, allowing for
winds and seas to subside in the western Gulf Sunday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades affect most of the Caribbean E of
81W, including the Windward and Mona Passages. In the central
Caribbean, between 68W and 78W, winds are strong to near gale
force with seas of 9 to 11 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are elsewhere in
the aforementioned region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
in the NW basin with seas to 6 ft, except in the Gulf of
Honduras, where winds remain fresh.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
the central and northeastern Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds in
the eastern Caribbean continuing through this weekend. These winds
will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night into
Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras tonight. A cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel Sat evening and from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Sun, bringing fresh northerly winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
GALE WARNING over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas.

The Bermuda High covers the SW and central Atlantic subtropical
waters, supporting the continuation of fresh winds large and
long period mixed NE and E swell, with seas at 8 to 9 ft, south
of 24N and east of the southern Bahamas. Locally strong winds
are also in this region, including N of Hispaniola and the
approaches of both the Mona and Windward passages. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds have begun along the Florida Seaboard N of
West Palm Beach and the NE Florida offshore waters ahead of an
approaching cold front, currently in the Gulf of Mexico. Farther
east, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N33W SW to 25N40W.
Fresh to strong N winds are in the wake of this front extending W
to 47W and N of 24N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are in the vicinity of the
front.

Elsewhere, a large area of fresh trades winds prevails south of
20N and W of 37W due to the pressure gradient between the
Bermuda high and the lower pressures over the deep tropics. Seas
are 8 to 10 ft, with the highest seas west of 50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, please see the Special Features
section for details on a low pressure moving off the Georgia
coast, bringing gale-force winds to the western Atlantic. The
aforementioned swell affecting areas from the Bahamas to
Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles will continue into Sat before
gradually subsiding.

$$
Mora
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