[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
05N09W to 02N20W to 02N44W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N to 04N between 05W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between 1028 mb high pressure inland near the Texas
Big Bend and lower pressure associated with a cold front extending
from the Bahamas to the southern Yucatan Peninsula is inducing
fresh NW winds across most of the basin, except fresh NE winds
over the SW Gulf. The latest altimeter and buoy data indicates
seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the basin, except for 3 to 5 ft
over the NW corner of the Gulf. Cloudiness and scattered showers
are noted over the southern Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26.5N.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient will result in
fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas building to 9 ft this
evening through tonight in the Bay of Campeche. Another cold front
is forecast to move into the N Gulf early next week. This front
will reach from central Florida to Brownsville, TX by early Tue,
then stall from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow in behind this front.
A stronger cold front may enter the NW Gulf Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.
A reinforcing cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N81.5W
to the southern Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. Cloudiness with
scattered showers prevails over the western Caribbean, to the west
of 77W. Drier weather is found east of 77W. To the NW of the
stationary front, N to NE winds are moderate to locally fresh with
seas 3 to 5 ft. Within 240 nm E of the stationary front, winds
are gentle with 1 to 3 ft seas. Within 120 nm of the N coast of
Colombia and NW Venezuela, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
and seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to weaken
this evening. Fresh to near-gale force NE winds and moderate to
rough seas will follow within 180 nm behind the reinforcing cold
front this weekend as it reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras tonight, from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras
late Sat, then stall from Haiti near 19.5N73W to central Nicaragua
near 12.5N83.5W by late Sun and weaken. High pressure building
north of the front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off
Colombia Sun night, Mon night and on Tue night along with building
seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba. A
reinforcing cold front extends from 31N74W to Nassau, Bahamas to
Cuba near 22.5N80W. Strong W winds follow this front north of 28N
between 75W and 80W, where seas have recently built to 8 to 10 ft.
Scattered showers are occurring west of 70W to the NW Bahamas, SE
Florida and the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere west of 60W, winds
are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft seas.

1006 mb low pressure is centered near 25N46W. An occluded front
extends from 26N48W to a triple point near 31.5N38W. A cold front
extends from the triple point to 24N39W to 18N44.5W. A warm front
extends from the triple point to 31N33W to 29N31W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 18N to 31N between 31W and
44W. Fresh to strong winds prevail across portions of the area
from 21N to 31N between 35W and 50W. Seas are in the 8 to 14 ft
range north of 20N between 35W and 55W. Elsewhere east of 60W,
winds are moderate or weaker with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and building
seas will follow the reinforcing cold front off the NE Florida
coast. This front will overtake the weakening front tonight, then
reach from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and
from 29N55W to Hispaniola near 20N70W by late Sun. The front will
stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate
through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the
NE Florida coast Mon night, and over the western part of the area
Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on
either side of this front NE of the Bahamas.

$$
Hagen
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