[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains and the
coastal waters of Africa close to 06N along the Prime Meridian, to
04N10W and 03N17W. The ITCZ continues along 03N17W 02N26W 01N32W
01N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
05N southward from 47W eastward, and from 10N southward between
47W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An east-to-west oriented surface ridge spans the area. Rough seas
are from 20N southward, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate seas cover the area from the SW corner toward the NE
corner of the area. Slight seas cover the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico. Strong to near gale- force NE winds are from 21N
southward between the Yucatan Peninsula and 94W. Fresh NW to N
winds are elsewhere from 87W westward. Fresh NW winds are from 87W
eastward.

High pressure is building across the Gulf. Fresh to strong N
winds and seas to 9 ft will prevail tonight in the Bay of
Campeche. Another cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf
early next week. This front will reach from west central Florida
to near the coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall from the SE
Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will follow in behind this front. A stronger cold front may
enter the NW Gulf late Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through SE Cuba, to Honduras. A cold
front passes through 22N79W in Cuba, to Belize and northern
Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
are from Hispaniola westward. Fresh NE winds are to the northwest
of the stationary front. Moderate seas are between the Dominican
Republic and Venezuela, and within 125 nm of Colombia. Slight seas
cover the rest of Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE winds are within 180 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Moderate or slower winds are in the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 30/0000 UTC are: 0.81 in Curacao, and 0.50 in Bermuda,
according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras. A
reinforcing cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize. Fresh
to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow this
front as it reaches from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras
late Sat, then stalls from Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua
late Sun where it will weaken. High pressure building north of the
front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun
night, Mon night and on Tue night along with building seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 24N44W. An occluded front
curves from the 1008 mb low pressure center to the 30N42W triple
point. A warm front curves away from the triple point to 31N31W. A
cold front starts at the triple point, to 24N49W and 17N49W. A
surface trough curves away from the 1008 mb low pressure center,
to 22N45W 21N49W 22N52W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is within 180 nm to the east of the cold
front from 18N to 25N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are elsewhere from 09N northward between 25W
and 50W. Rough seas are to the north of the line 31N55W 22N52W
21N45W 31N39W. Near gale-force winds are in the areas of the
comparatively strongest convective precipitation. Strong winds are
elsewhere from 21N to 26N between 35W and 45W, and from 30N
northward between 40W and 47W. Fresh winds are within 480 nm of
the 1008 mb low pressure center in the W quadrant. Fresh NE winds
are from 10N southward between 45W and 53W, and from 13N to 18N
between 20W and 30W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas,
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The first cold front passes through 31N63W to SE Cuba. A second
cold front 31N73W, to the Bahamas near 24N76W, beyond 22N79W in
Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are to the west of the line 31N50W 25N63W
20N70W. Strong W to NW winds are from 27N northward from 75W
westward. Moderate and fresh winds are elsewhere from 23N
northward from 60W westward.

Fresh NE winds are from 10N southward between 45W and 53W, and
from 13N to 18N between 20W and 30W. Moderate or slower winds, and
moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Moderate to rough seas, and moderate NE winds, are from 22N to 27N
from 25W eastward.

A weakening cold front extends from near Bermuda to NE Cuba. A
reinforcing cold front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba. Fresh
to strong winds and building seas will follow the reinforcing
front. This front will overtake the weakening front as it reaches
from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and from
28N55W to eastern Hispaniola by late Sun. The front will stall
from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through
Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the NE Florida
coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area
by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
on either side of this front NE of the Bahamas.

$$
mt/al
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