[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291651
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
05N08W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N
between 15W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, the cold front has exited the Gulf of Mexico.
Building high pressure provides for moderate to fresh NW winds
across the waters with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across the
Gulf in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong N winds and seas
building to 8 ft are expected tonight in the Veracruz offshore
waters. Another cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf
early next week. This front will reach from west central Florida
to near the coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall from the SE
Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will follow in behind this front. Another cold front may
enter the NW Gulf late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the W Caribbean, a stationary front extends from Cabo Cruz,
Cuba to Barra Patuca, Honduras. A new cold front passed through
the Yucatan Channel this morning. Showers are noted near both
boundaries. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are evident in the
latest surface observations, with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
trades and 2-4 ft seas prevail in the central and eastern
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from eastern
Cuba to Honduras will weaken late today. Fresh to strong NE winds
and moderate to rough seas will follow the new cold front as it
reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late today, from
the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall
from south central Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua by late
Sun and weaken. High pressure building north of the front will
support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night, Mon
night and on Tue night along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Central Atlantic Gale Warning has expired. 1006 mb low
pressure is centered near 25N47W. Frontal boundaries extend from
25N48W to 31N41W to 28N32W. North of the fronts between 40W and
48W, strong to near-gale force NE winds continue based on
scatterometer data from earlier this morning. Seas 8 ft or greater
are north of 23N between 35W and 56W, with peak seas to 13 ft
near 27N51W. A cold front extends from 29N43W to 20N45W to 17N52W.
An area of strong S winds is just ahead of the cold front from 20N
to 23N between 37W and 43W. Scattered moderate convection is from
20N to 31N between 32W and 43W.

A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba. A
reinforcing cold front exited the coast of Florida this morning
and now extends from 31N76W to 23N82W. Moderate to fresh NW winds
follow this front, with locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft possible
near 31N78W. Scattered showers are in the Straits of Florida.
Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail over remaining
Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will
overtake the leading cold front as it reaches from near 31N70W to
central Cuba by late today, from near Bermuda to the Windward
Passage by late Sat, and from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola by late
Sun. The front will stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola
Mon and dissipate through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front
may move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the
western part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected on either side of this front NE of the
Bahamas.

$$
Mahoney
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