[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 26N48W. An occluded
front curves from the 1006 mb low pressure center to the
27N45W triple point. A warm front is along 27N45W 29N37W.
A cold front is along 27N45W 24N45W 19N50W 18N55W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 15N northward between 36W and 50W.
Gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet
to 16 feet, are from 26N northward between 40W and 50W.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 16N northward
between 40W and 53W. Rough seas are from 22N northward
between 40W and 60W. Strong NE-to-E winds are from 27N
northward between 30W and 40W. Rough seas are from 22N
northward between 30W and 40W. Near gale-force to gale-
force winds are from 22N northward between 35W and 54W.
Strong to near gale-force winds are forecast in this
area later today on Friday morning. The gale-force winds
will be slowing down by Friday morning. Please, refer to
the High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern Ghana, the
coastal plains of the Ivory Coast, to 04N09W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N09 03N20W 02N30W 02N40W 03N51W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ,
and elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NE corner of Florida,
just to the south of the Tampa Florida metropolitan
area, to just off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula,
to 19N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 26N southward.
Strong NW winds are from 28N northward between 84W and 90W.
Fresh NW winds are elsewhere from the cold front northward
from 90W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from the cold front
to 24N from 92W westward. Moderate or slower winds are
in the rest of the area.

Moderate seas are in the central one-third of the area.
Slight seas cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extending from Central Florida to the SW Gulf
will move southeast of the basin by early Fri. Winds and
seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the
Gulf in the wake of the front. Another cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf early next week.
The front will reach from west central Florida to near
the coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall from the
SE Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front.
Another cold front may enter the NW Gulf late Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N79W to 17N87W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 120 nm of Honduras from 81W westward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the northwest
of the line that runs from the coast of Nicaragua along
13N beyond the Windward Passage. Fresh northerly winds
are to the northwest of the line that runs from the
coast of Honduras near 16N84W beyond 80W along the coast
of Cuba.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere
throughout the area.

Fresh NE winds are within 150 nm of the coasts of Venezuela
and Colombia between 69W and 72W. Moderate or slower winds,
and slight seas, are in the rest of the area.

A cold front extending from central Cuba to near western
Honduras will weaken as it reaches from near the Windward
Passage to Honduras late Fri. A reinforcing cold front
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwestern
Caribbean early Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow this front as it reaches
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, from
the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then
stall from south central Hispaniola to southeastern
Nicaragua by late Sun and weaken. High pressure building
north of the front will support fresh to strong winds
pulsing off Colombia Sun night, Mon night and on Tue night
along with building seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the gale-force winds, and the 26N48W 1006 mb
low pressure center and the frontal boundaries.

A cold front passes through 31N68W beyond 22N79W in Cuba.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to
the northwest of the line that passes through 31N63W,
to the Windward Passage.

A surface trough is along 31N21W 26N27W. Rough seas are
from 23N northward between 20W and 30W. Rainshowers are
possible from 22N northward between 20W and 30W.

Fresh NE winds are from 08N to 18N between 28W and 34W,
and from the ITCZ to 09N between 36W and 45W. Moderate
seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A slowly weakening cold front extends from 31N68W to
central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and building seas
will follow a stronger cold front that will move off
the NE Florida coast overnight. This front will overtake
the weakening front as it reaches from near 31N70W to
central Cuba by late Fri, from near Bermuda to the
Windward Passage by late Sat, and from 28N55W to eastern
Hispaniola by late Sun. The front will stall from near
27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through
Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the
NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western
part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected on either side of this front
NE of the Bahamas.

$$
mt/al
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