[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282253
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 26N35W
to 26N40W, then becomes a warm front to 1010 mb low pressure near
27N45W. From there an occluded front extends to a second 1006 mb
low near 26N48W. Gale force E winds are currently north of the
front between 40W and 48W. Seas are 12-14 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is from 18N-30N between 34W-47W. Little change in
winds and seas are expected today and tonight. Gales are forecast
to end by tomorrow morning as the pressure gradient relaxes and
the frontal boundary slowly lifts northward. For more information,
please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to the coast of Brazil near
01S48W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Big Bend coast,
Florida to the Mexican coast near 20N97W. Moderate to fresh NW to
N winds are behind with 2-5 ft seas. Scattered showers are
occurring within 30 NM of the front east of 84W.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast of the basin
late tonight, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure
builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun
night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is
expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon, reach
from west central Florida to the central Gulf and to near the
coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall from the SE Gulf to the
central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
follow in behind this front. Yet another cold front may enter the
NW Gulf late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba to 18N86W
in the NW Caribbean Sea. Moderate NW to N winds are behind the
front with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered showers are north of 19N
between 80W-84W. Elsewhere, the trades are gentle to moderate with
seas 1-4 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from
near the Windward Passage to Honduras late Fri. Scattered showers
are along the front north of 19N. A reinforcing dry cold front
that is presently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will enter the
northwestern late tonight early Fri. Fresh to strong northeast
winds and moderate to rough seas will follow this front as it
reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, from
the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall from
south central Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua by late Sun
and weaken. High pressure building north of the front will support
fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night, Mon night
and on Tue night along with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about a
Central Atlantic GALE WARNING.

As of 2100 UTC, a 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 25N78W
over the N Bahamas. A cold front extends southwest of the low to
central Cuba and a warm front extends east-northeast of the low
to 26N74W. Scattered showers are noted in the Straits of Florida,
and across the Bahamas. Winds within 120 NM of the low are fresh
to strong with seas 3-5 ft over the open Atlantic waters. Aside
from winds associated with the central Atlantic gale, winds over
the remainder of the Atlantic waters are moderate or weaker with
seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low and warm front will weaken
Fri morning, and the system is forecast to be a weakening cold
front that will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by early
Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow
a stronger front that will move off the NE Florida coast
overnight. This front will overtake the weakening front as it
reaches from near 31N70W to central Cuba by late Fri, from near
Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and from 28N55W to
eastern Hispaniola by late Sun. The front will stall from near
27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through Tue.
Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the NE Florida
coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by
late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on
either side of this front NE of the Bahamas.

$$
Mahoney/Landsea
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