[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary extends from
1009 mb low pressure near 25N48W to 25N30W. Gale force E winds
are currently north of the front between 43W and 48W. Seas are
12-16 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 31N between
30W and 48W. Little change in winds and seas are expected today
and tonight. Gales are forecast to end by Fri morning as the
pressure gradient relaxes and the frontal boundary slowly lifts
northward. For more information, please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to the coast of Brazil near
01S47W. No significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, 1012 mb low pressure is located within the Straits
of Florida in the far SE Gulf of Mexico. This low and its
associated fronts will continue to move east this afternoon.
Fresh to strong N winds prevail in the SE Gulf and Straits of
Florida, with 4-6 ft seas. A cold front extends from the
Tallahassee, Florida to Tecolutla, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are behind the front across the central and western Gulf,
with 2-4 ft seas. In the W Bay of Campeche within 90 nm of the
coast of Veracruz, Mexico, NW winds are fresh to locally strong
with 4-6 ft seas. No significant convection is noted across the
Gulf of Mexico, with remaining showers in the SE waters exiting
the area.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast of the basin
late tonight, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure
builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun
night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is
expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon, and
reach from southwest Florida to the south central Gulf and SW Gulf
by late Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in
behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 1500 UTC, a new cold front is analyzed from Matanzas, Cuba
to 18N87W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Earlier surface observations
indicate moderate to fresh NW winds are behind the front.
Scattered showers and t-storms are north of 21N between 81W and
83W. Elsewhere, scatterometer data shows light to gentle trades
across the basin with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, another cold front will move across the Yucatan
Channel tonight into Fri morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds
and moderate to rough seas will follow the front as it reaches
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, from the
Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall from
south central Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua by late Sun and
weaken. High pressure building north of the front will support
fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night and Mon night
with building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about a
Central Atlantic GALE WARNING.

Adjacent to the Central Atlantic Gale Warning, a surface trough is
from 24N40W to 16N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120nm of the trough axis. In the W Atlantic, 1012 mb low pressure
is centered near 24N80W in the Straits of Florida. A cold front
extends southwest of the low to Matanzas, Cuba and a warm front
extends ENE of the low across the central Bahamas to 25N75W.
Scattered showers and t-storms are noted in the Straits of
Florida, and across the Bahamas and South Florida. A weak cold
front extends from 31N70W to 25N75W.

Fresh to strong E winds are north of 25N between 30W and 55W,
according to the satellite scatterometer data from this morning.
Seas are analyzed 8-11 ft in this area. Elsewhere, light to gentle
E winds prevail across the Atlantic waters, with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the portion of the weak cold front
north of 28N will drift eastward toward Bermuda through this
afternoon. The southern portion will stall and weaken further,
before being overtaken by a the disturbance moving from the
Straits of Florida toward the northern and central Bahamas by
this evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow
a stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida coast
overnight and overtake the disturbance in the northern Bahamas.
This stronger front will reach from near 31N70W to central Cuba by
late Fri, from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat,
and from 31N55W to north central Hispaniola by late Sun. The
southern portion of the front south of 25N will stall into Mon,
while the northern portion will continue to move east of the area.
Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the northeast
Florida coast Mon night into Tue.

$$
Mahoney
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