[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280956
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are active over a large area north of a trough
extending from 22N35W to 15N55W. This activity is associated with
a broad upper trough moving slowly to the east across the region.
The pattern will support development of 1008 mb low pressure
along the trough near 26N45W later today. The gradient between the
low and high pressure north of the area will support strong to
near-gale force winds along the trough through late Fri, briefly
reaching minimal gale force just north of the low pressure and
trough this evening through the overnight hours. Maximum seas may
reach as high as 16 ft tonight in the area of gales, with a
component of NE to E swell. For more information, please refer to
the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia
near 04.5N08W and continues to 03.5N15W. The ITCZ continues from
03.5N15W to 01S30W then on to 00N30W. No significant convection is
evident along these features at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level jet dynamics are supporting the development of a weak
low pressure area across the southeast Gulf this morning. Clusters
of strong thunderstorms are active across and north of the
Yucatan Channel moving into far western Cuba and the western
Straits of Florida. Strong winds and locally rough seas are likely
near this thunderstorms. Elsewhere, a cold front extending from
near Grand Isle, Louisiana to Boca de Catan, Tamaulipas in
northeast Mexico. Buoy observations show fresh NW winds follow the
front over the far northwest Gulf, off the coast of Texas.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are noted, outside of the activity in the far southeast Gulf.

For the forecast, over the southeast Gulf, the fresh to strong
winds, locally rough seas, and scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will move across the remainder of the far
southeastern Gulf this morning into the early afternoon,
associated the weak disturbance moving from the southeast Gulf
across South Florida toward the northern Bahamas. The cold front
moving through the northwest Gulf will move southeast of the basin by
late this evening followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate
to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure
builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and
Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold
front is expected to move across the northern and western Gulf
Mon, and reach from southwest Florida to the south-central Gulf
and SW Gulf by late Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
follow in behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, locally rough seas and
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Yucatan
Channel this morning, associated with a weak disturbance over the
southeast Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
slight to moderate seas are evident elsewhere across the
Caribbean, except for possible fresh winds pulsing off the coast
of Colombia currently. Outside of the showers and thunderstorms in
the Yucatan Channel, no significant convection is noted at this
time.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across
the Yucatan Channel tonight into Fri morning. Fresh to strong NE
winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front as it
reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, from
the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall
from south- central Hispaniola to southeast Nicaragua by late
Sun. High pressure building north of the front will support
fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night and Mon
night with building seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the gale warning for the Central Atlantic.

A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N71W to the central Bahamas.
Fresh S winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 29N between
65W and 70W ahead of this boundary, with moderate to fresh NW
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas noted north of 29N west of the boundary.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted
elsewhere west of 60W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter
satellite data showed fresh to strong winds and 8 to 11 ft
combined seas over a broad area north of a trough reaching from
1014 mb low pressure near the Azores to just northeast of
Barbados. A 1010 mb low pressure area was analyzed north of the
trough near 21N55W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
are active over a large area north of the trough east of 50W.
Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in northerly
swell are noted elsewhere south of this trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, regarding the weak frontal boundary
extending from 31N71W to the central Bahamas, the portion of the
front north of 28N will drift east toward Bermuda through today.
The southern portion will stall and weaken further, before being
overtaken by a weak disturbance moving from the southeast Gulf
toward the northern and central Bahamas by this evening. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas will follow a stronger front that
will move off the northeast Florida coast overnight and overtake
the disturbance in the northern Bahamas. This stronger front will
reach from 31N70W to central Cuba by late Fri, from near Bermuda
to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and from 31N55W to north-
central Hispaniola by late Sun. The southern portion of the front
south of 25N will stall into Mon, while the northern portion will
continue to move east of the area. Looking ahead, another cold
front may move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue.

$$
Christensen
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