[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290902
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1008 mb is centered
near 26N48W. An occluded front extends from the low to near
29N44W, and continues eastward as a warm front to near 28N35W. A
cold front extends SW of the occluded front to near 22N45W to
18N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 20N to 31N between 35W and 45W. A ridge extends westward
along 35N from a 1026 mb high center near 37N31W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the area of low pressure is
supporting an area of gale force winds N of 29N between 39W and
44W. Strong to near gale force winds are elsewhere N of 28N
between 34W and 52W, as well as from 22N to 28N between 37W and
45W. Seas in excess of 12 ft are noted N of 27N between 38W and
51W, where seas are peaking near 15-16 ft. Seas in excess of 8 ft
cover the remainder of the waters N of 23N between 34W and 57W.
The pressure gradient will relax slightly this morning,
diminishing winds below gale force. The low will gradually fill
through the weekend, with associated winds and seas further
decreasing.

For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 04N09E to 04N09W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N09W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 05N between 12W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from south Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula,
with high pressure building in its wake. Moderate to fresh winds
are over the northern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast of the basin
early today. High pressure will build across the Gulf in the wake
of the front. Another cold front is expected to move into the NW
Gulf early next week. This front will reach from west central
Florida to near the coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall
from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. Another
cold front may enter the NW Gulf late Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to Honduras. Scattered
moderate convection is found W of the front. Moderate winds are
noted W of the front, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere east of the front. Seas east of
the front are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from
near the Windward Passage to Honduras late today. A reinforcing
cold front over the SE Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwestern
Caribbean early today. Fresh to strong northeast winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow this front as it reaches from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late today, from the Windward
Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall from south
central Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua by late Sun and
weaken. High pressure building north of the front will support
fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night, Mon night
and on Tue night along with building seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about a
Central Atlantic gale warning.

Aside from the area of gale force winds discussed above, a
weakening cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm E of the front N of
24N. Moderate SW winds are just E of the front. A stronger
reinforcing front is just off the NE Florida coast, with fresh
winds W of the front. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, with areas
of locally moderate, prevail. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front off NE Florida will
overtake the weakening front as it reaches from near 31N70W to
central Cuba by late today, from near Bermuda to the Windward
Passage by late Sat, and from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola by late
Sun. The front will stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola
Mon and dissipate through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front
may move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the
western part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected on either side of this front NE of the
Bahamas.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net