[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: An upper disturbance moving into the
central Atlantic over the next couple of days will induce
development of a 1008 mb surface low by Thu afternoon near 25N45W
along a trough in the central Atlantic. The gradient between the
low pressure and strong high pressure over the northwest Atlantic
will support an area of near-gale to gale force winds into Thu
evening from generally 27N to 29N between 38W and 42W. Associate
combined seas will reach as high as 16 ft, accompanied by a
component of NE swell. For more information, please refer to the
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ghana near 05N02E to
02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 06N51W. Scattered
moderate convection extends southward of 08N between 23W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure extending over the central Gulf is supporting
light to gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are observed across the northwest Gulf,
mainly west of 88W and north of 22N.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of
a dry cold front that will move off the Texas coast this
afternoon. The front will move southeast of the basin Thu night
through early Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate
to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure
builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun
night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is
expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon and
reach from southwest Florida to the south-central Gulf and SW Gulf
by late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaches from central Cuba to near Roatan off the
coast of mainland Honduras. There may be a small area of fresh to
strong NE to E winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia, but
elsewhere across the Caribbean mostly moderate trade winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail. The relatively light wind flow is
due to a front moving through the Bahamas north of the area,
breaking up the subtropical ridge that is normally in place there
supporting slight stronger trade winds across the Caribbean. There
is no significant convection noted anywhere across the Caribbean
at this time.

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front
will move across the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning,
reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, the
Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua late Sat, and the
Dominican Republic to southern Nicaragua by late sun. Fresh to
strong winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri
night through Sun, along with fresh to strong northeast winds in
the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
upcoming Atlantic gale warning.

A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low centered just offshore
South Carolina to 31N77W, then south-southwestward to the central
Bahamas and to just north of east-central Cuba. A recent
scatterometer pass reveals fresh W winds behind the front backing
to SE ahead of the front, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft east of
the front to 70W, north of 28N. Farther east, a broad mid to upper
trough moving into the central Atlantic is supporting a surface
trough from 30N61W to 21N57W, and a large area of showers and
thunderstorms east of the trough to 47W, north of 20N. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted
elsewhere north of 20N and west of 60W. East of that, another
surface trough reaches from a 1012 mb low pressure from 32N27W to
15N53W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 160 nm
east of this trough, north of 20N. A large area of fresh to strong
NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft seas persist west of this trough to
60W, north of 25N. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
active within 120 nm east of this trough, north of 27N. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the remainder
of the basin, south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the abovementioned front in the
western Atlantic will weaken as it lifts to the northeast through
Bermuda, ahead of a second and stronger cold front that is
expected to move off the northeast Florida coast late Thu night.
That next front will reach from near Bermuda to the Windward
Passage Fri night, from near 31N60W to Haiti by late Sat, and from
near 29N58W to the central Dominican Republic by late Sun.

$$
Nepaul
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net