[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: An upper disturbance moving into the
central Atlantic will induce development of a surface low by Thu
afternoon near 26N44W along a trough in the central Atlantic. The
gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure over
the N Atlantic will support an area of near-gale to gale force E
winds Thu and Thu evening from generally 27N-30N between 38W-45W.
Seas will reach as high as 16 ft. For more information, please
refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to 02N46W. Isolated moderate
convection extends from 05N-08N between 45W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure extending over the central Gulf is supporting
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-2 ft over the E Gulf and
2-5 ft over the W Gulf. Scattered showers are observed across the
NE Gulf, mainly east of 88W and north of 25N.

For the forecast, high pressure across the north-central Gulf
will shift eastward ahead of a dry cold front that will move off
the Texas coast early this evening. The front will move southeast
of the basin on Thu night, followed by fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high
pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking
ahead, fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun
and Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold
front is expected to move across the northern and western Gulf
Mon, and reach from southwest Florida to the south-central Gulf
and SW Gulf by late Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
follow in behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front moving through the Bahamas north of the area is
breaking up the subtropical ridge that is normally in place there,
diminishing the trades across the Caribbean this afternoon. Winds
are gentle to moderate and there is no significant convection
noted anywhere across the Caribbean at this time.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front will
move across the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning, reach
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, the Windward
Passage to northeast Nicaragua late Sat, and the Dominican
Republic to southern Nicaragua by late sun. Fresh to strong winds
will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri night through
Sun, along with fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward
Passage Sat night and Sun. By late Mon, mostly moderate to fresh
winds will be over the western Caribbean and fresh to strong winds
near the coast of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
upcoming Atlantic gale warning.

A cold front extends from 31N75W to 26N74W and southwestward
to the central Bahamas and to 22N76W. Fresh to strong SE winds are
ahead of the front north of 27N with seas 6-8 ft. Over the central
Atlantic, an extended trough from 31N25W to 19N50W is associated
with a large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 19N-28N between 35W-53W. This is supported by a
sharp upper- level trough along 48W. Winds north of the trough are
NE to E fresh to strong with 8-12 ft seas. Winds and seas are
higher near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, the winds are gentle to
moderate with seas 5-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
weaken as it lifts to the northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a
second and stronger cold front that is expected to move off the
northeast Florida coast late Thu night. That next front will reach
from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage Fri night, from near
31N60W to Haiti by late Sat, from near 31N55W to the central
Dominican Republic by late Sun, then stall and weaken by late Mon
from near 29N55W to the northeast part of the Dominican Republic.

$$
Landsea/Nepaul
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