[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: An upper disturbance moving into the
central Atlantic over the next couple of days will induce development
of a 1008 mb surface low by Thu afternoon near 25N45W along a
trough. The gradient between the low pressure and strong high
pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support an area of near-
gale to gale force winds into Thu evening from generally 27N to
29N between 38W and 42W. Associate combined seas will reach as
high as 16 ft, accompanied by a component of NE swell. For more
information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nigeria near 06N05E
to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 03N47W. Scattered
moderate convection extends from 02N to 04N between 30W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure extends over the central Gulf in the wake of a
cold front that moved through the basin late yesterday. This
pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas
across the Gulf. Visibility is less than 1 nm in sea fog over
parts of the eastern Gulf within 20 nm of the coast between
Englewood and Bonita Springs, Florida. A dense fog advisory is in
effect for this area until 9 a.m.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of
a cold front that will move off the Texas coast late today. The
front will move southeast of the basin Thu night through early
Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas.
Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across
the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh southerly
winds will return to the western Gulf Sun as the high pressures
shifts eastward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaches from Cuba's Isle of Youth to near Roatan
off the coast of mainland Honduras. There may be a small area of
fresh to strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia, but
elsewhere across the Caribbean mostly moderate trade winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin. The relatively
light wind flow is due to a front moving through the Bahamas
north of the area, breaking up the subtropical ridge that is
normally in place there supporting slight stronger trade winds
across the Caribbean. There is no significant convection noted
anywhere across the Caribbean at this time.

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front
will move through the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning,
reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, the
Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua late Sat, and the
Dominican Republic to southern Nicaragua by late sun. Fresh to
strong winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri
night through Sun, along with fresh to strong NE winds over the
Windward Passage Sat night and Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
upcoming Atlantic gale warning.

A cold front reaches from South Carolina to the northern Bahamas
to central Cuba. Fresh to strong SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are
likely east of the front to 70W, north of 28N. Areas of sea fog
are expected through 10 am this morning in the coastal waters of
northeast Florida, with visibilities 1 nm or less from Altamaha
Sound to Fernandina Beach out 20 nm. Farther east, a broad mid to
upper trough is moving into the central Atlantic, north of 20N
between 50W and 55W. This is supporting a surface trough from
30N64W to 21N55W, and a large area of showers and thunderstorms
east of the trough to 50W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5
to 7 ft combines seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N and west
of 60W. East of that, another trough reaches from 1009 mb low
pressure from 32N27W to 14N53W. A few showers may be active within
90 nm east of this trough, north of 28N. A large area of fresh to
strong NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft seas persist west of this
trough to 60W, north of 20N. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9
ft seas are active within 120 nm east of this trough, north of
25N. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere.


For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it
lifts to the northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a second
reinforcing front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast
Fri night. That front will reach from near Bermuda to the
Windward Passage Fri night, from 31N60W to Haiti by late Sat, and
from 29N58W to the central Dominican Republic by late Sun.

$$
Christensen
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