[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
Tight gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure SE Alabama and
a 1033 mb high pressure off the northeast U.S. is sustaining
near-gale SE winds with frequent gusts to gale force across the
coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to off Mobile Bay.
Seas in these areas have subsided and range between 8 to 11 ft.
As the low and its related warm front lift farther northward
later this afternoon, these winds will continue to decrease.
Please visit the National Weather Service website at
www.weather.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic to 31N42W to 22N56W. A low pressure is expected to form
along this front near 29N44W this afternoon. As this low deepens
while moves east-northeastward, NE winds northwest and north of
this low will reach near-gale to gale force early Tuesday
morning. Combined seas under the strongest winds will build and
peak at 12 to 16 ft north 27N between 35W and 50W. As the low
tracks east-northeastward through Tuesday afternoon, these gales
and rough seas will also shift eastward. Conditions should begin
to improve Tuesday evening as the low gradually weakens. Please
read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ
extends westward from southwest of Liberia at 03N11W across
04N31W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection from 01.5N to
06.5N between 33W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above on an ongoing gale
warning.

A warm front extends southeastward from a 1009 mb low over
Southeastern Alabama to the east-central Gulf. A cold front also
curves southwestward from this same low to south of Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with
gusty winds are occurring near over the loop current in the
east-central and southeast Gulf. Another cold front has moved
over northwest Gulf, extending from western Louisiana to South
Padre Island, Texas. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to
strong SE to S winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present across
the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to
SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the southeastern Gulf
including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle NW to N winds and
seas 2 to 5 ft prevail over the central and southwestern Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds
are over the northwestern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned warm front is lifting
northeastward across the northeast Gulf, ahead of low pressure
and an associated cold front moving through the north-central
Gulf. Expect strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas
through the late morning today over the northeast Gulf as the
warm front moves north of the area, diminishing this afternoon
through this evening. Scattered thunderstorms moving ahead of
the cold front over the southeastern Gulf will continue moving
eastward this afternoon before diminishing this evening. The
cold front will reach from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico
early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue, then shift
east ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the northwest
Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front
over the northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted
over western Cuba and adjacent waters in association to a deep
layer trough moving ahead of the front that is located over the
central Gulf. Elsewhere, a broad ridging over the western
Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the
Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for strong winds pulsing
off Colombia where seas are reaching 8 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off
Colombia through Tue night. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail
elsewhere through Thu. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel
by late Wed, stalling from Cuba to Honduras by the end of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
upcoming Atlantic gale warning.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a
stationary front that extends southwestward from the
northeastern Atlantic across 31N42W to 22N56W. A surface trough
follows the stationary front from 22N56W and curves northward to
31N69W. Another surface trough is depicted ahead of the front
extending from 31N40W then southwestward to 19N55.5W. Fresh to
strong SE winds are noted north of the northern Bahamas and off
northeast Florida, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Recent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to strong NE Winds mainly north of 27N
between 48W and 55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 7 to 9
ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N west of 55W. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere south of broad
ridging over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will
persist off northeast Florida through late Tue ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off
the northeast Florida coast by early Wed, and reach reach from
near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to
central Cuba Thu night, and from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba
Fri night. Large NE to E swell will also persist across the
region mainly north of 24N and east of 65W through mid week. W
to NW winds will increase off northeast Florida Thu night into
Fri as a second, reinforcing front moves of the coast.

$$
KRV
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net