[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the
northeastern Atlantic to 31N41W to 22N56W. A surface trough is
analyzed from 31N40W to 17N54W. A low pressure is expected to form
near 29N44W tonight. As this low deepens while moving east-
northeastward, NE winds north of the low will reach near-gale to
gale force Tuesday at 0600 UTC. Combined seas under the strongest
winds will build and peak at 12 to 15 ft north 28N between 35W and
48W. As the low tracks east-northeastward through Tuesday
afternoon, these gales and rough seas will also shift eastward.
Conditions should begin to improve Tuesday evening as the low
gradually weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ
extends from 03N11W to 04N48W. Scattered showers are noted from
00N-08N between 29W-42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low is centered inland near 31N86W. A warm front extends
from the low to 29N83W. A cold front extends from the low to
19N95W. A reinforcing front extends across the NW Gulf from 29N91W
to 25N98W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
are present across the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to
SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the southeastern Gulf
including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle NW to N winds and
seas 2 to 5 ft prevail over the central and southwestern Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are
over the northwestern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds will continue
near and to the east of the warm front, over the far eastern Gulf,
through early this evening before diminishing. Seas will subside
tonight over the NE Gulf. A secondary cold front has entered the
NW Gulf, extending from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico. Moderate N
winds prevail behind the second front. The cold fronts will
combine by Tue morning and extend from northern Florida to Tuxpan,
Mexico, then weaken and slowly move southeast of the Gulf late
Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue, then
shift east ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the
northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the
front over the northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through
early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted
over western Cuba and adjacent waters in association to a deep
layer trough moving ahead of the front that is located over the
E Gulf. Elsewhere, a broad ridging over the western Atlantic is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean with
4 to 6 ft seas, except for strong winds pulsing off Colombia
where seas are reaching 8 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night near
the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Moderate or weaker winds
will prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel Wed night and weaken Thu over the NW Caribbean. A
reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night,
stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by the end of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
upcoming Atlantic Gale Warning.

Scattered showers prevail across the W Atlantic W of 74W. To the
E, a surface trough extends from 22N56W to 30N70W. Fresh to
strong SE winds are noted north of the northern Bahamas and off
northeast Florida, with 8 to 10 ft seas. Recent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to strong NE Winds mainly north of 27N between
48W and 55W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas
are noted elsewhere north of 24N between 35W-66W. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere south of broad ridging
over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will
persist off northeast Florida through late Tue ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west. The front will move off the
northeast Florida coast by early Wed, and reach reach from near
31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to central
Cuba Thu night. This front will quickly be overtaken by a stronger
reinforcing front that emerges off the coast of NE Florida Thu
evening. The combined front will extend from near Bermuda to
eastern Cuba late Fri night. W to NW winds will increase off
northeast Florida Thu night into Fri as the reinforcing front
moves off the coast. Large NE to E swell will persist across the
region mainly north of 22N and east of 65W through mid week.

$$
ERA
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