[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250954
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
Tight gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over southeastern
Louisiana and a 1030 mb high pressure off the northeast U.S. is
sustaining near-gale SE winds with frequent gusts to gale force
across the coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to off Mobile
Bay. Seas in these area range from 11 to 13 ft. As the low and its
related warm front lift farther northward later this morning,
these winds will decrease. Please visit the National Weather
Service website at www.weather.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic to 31N41W to 23N55W. A low pressure is expected to form
along this front near 29N44W today. As this low deepens while
moves east- northeastward, NE winds northwest and north of this
low will reach near-gale to gale force early Tuesday morning.
Combined seas under the strongest winds will build and peak at 12
to 17 ft north 27N between 40W and 50W. As the low tracks east-
northeastward through Tuesday afternoon, these gales and rough
seas will also shift eastward. Conditions should begin to improve
Tuesday evening as the low gradually weakens. Please read the High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ
extends westward from southwest of Liberia at 02N11W across 04N30W
to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 90 nm
along either side of the ITCZ between 40W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above on an ongoing gale
warning.

A warm front extends southeastward from a 1007 mb low over
southern Louisiana to the east-central Gulf. A cold front also
curves southwestward from this same low to north of Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with
gusty winds are occurring near over the loop current in the
south-central and southeast Gulf. Outside the Gale Warning area,
fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are present
across the northeastern and east- central Gulf. Moderate to fresh
SE to SW winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are found at the southeastern
and central Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to
moderate SW to NW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the warm front will move north of the area this
morning. The cold front will reach from northern Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf
early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue,
then shift east ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the
northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the
front over the northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through
Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds across the Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas,
except for strong winds pulsing off Colombia where seas are
reaching 8 ft. No significant showers or thunderstorms are active
across the basin at this time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off
Colombia through Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh winds in
the western Caribbean will diminish early this week. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. A cold
front may reach the Yucatan Channel by late Wed, stalling from
Cuba to Honduras by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
upcoming Atlantic gale warning.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a
stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic across 31N41W to 23N55W. A surface trough stretches
northward from 31N67W to 24N67W. Fresh to strong SE winds are
noted north of the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida,
with 6 to 9 ft seas. Ship observations indicate fresh to strong NE
winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in NE swell mainly north of 27N between
55W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas
are noted elsewhere north of 20N west of 55W. Moderate winds and
seas are noted elsewhere south of broad ridging over the eastern
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will
persist off northeast Florida through late Tue ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast by early Wed, and reach reach from near
31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to central
Cuba Thu night, and from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri night.
Large NE to E swell will also persist across the region mainly
north of 24N and east of 65W through mid week. W to NW winds will
increase off northeast Florida Thu night into Fri as a second,
reinforcing front moves of the coast.

$$
Christensen
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