[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Africa monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ghana near
05N01W to 00N08W. The ITCZ continues from 00N08W to 04N45W to
03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 35W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data show moderate
to locally fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas over the north central
Gulf, following a weak surface trough extending southward off
Louisiana. The scatterometer data also indicated small area of moderate
to fresh winds just north of the Yucatan Channel in the south-
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas
are noted elsewhere east of 90W. Light breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
are evident west of 90W. There is no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity noted at this time.

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas across the mainly the
north- central and northeastern Gulf will increase starting
tonight between high pressure over the Carolinas and a complex low
and cold front moving from the southern Rockies into the southern
Plains. A warm front will develop ahead of the low and move
northward across the northwest Gulf tonight into Sun. Winds may
reach near- gale Sun night over the northeast Gulf, with seas
building to 12 ft.The cold front will move off the Texas coast
into the northwest Gulf Sun night, reach from Cameron, Louisiana
to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from Cedar Key, Florida to Veracruz,
Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to
strong NE winds south of Cuba and Hispaniola, in the Windward
Passage, and off Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft off Colombia, and
generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except for 4 to 6 ft in the
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure will weaken and shift
east today, allowing winds and seas to diminish slight across the
basin, although fresh to strong trade winds will pulse of Colombia
mainly overnight through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front
may reach the Yucatan Channel by early Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N46W to near Puerto Rico. A
negatively tilted upper trough continues to support a few clusters
of showers and thunderstorms within 240 nm east of the front north
of 28N, although this activity seems to be gradually diminishing
as the supporting upper features becomes less amplified. An
earlier scatterometer pass showed a surface trough near 21N63W at
the base of the upper trough, with a small area of fresh to strong
surface winds. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere west of the
front, with mostly moderate NE to E winds. Combined seas are 7 to
10 ft in open waters mainly due to N to NE swell lingering over
the area. Similarly, mostly moderate easterly winds are evident
elsewhere east of the front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE to E swell.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight.
Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell
will persist mainly north of 22N through early Sun, and north of
24N into the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the
Carolinas and mid- Atlantic states, and broad low pressure
develops east of the area. Looking ahead, a cold front will move
off the northeast Florida coast early Wed and reach from 31N75W to
South Florida Wed night. Farther east, expect strong to near-gale
force NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of the low
pressure forming near 27N45W. Reinforcing NE swell will allow
combined seas to reach as high as 17 ft north of the low into mid
week.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net