[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Africa monsoon trough remains mostly over the continent. An
ITCZ extends west-northwestward from 01N10W across 02N30W to
06N49W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is noted
up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Two surface troughs are producing widely scattered showers at the
north-central and west-central Gulf. Westerlies associated with
the sub-tropical jet are streaming thick cirrus clouds across the
Gulf between 23N and 27N. At the surface, a broad surface ridge
runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are present at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to ESE
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is producing
moderate or weaker winds over the Gulf this afternoon with the
exception of some fresh NE winds over the Florida Straits.
For Sat and Sun, an approaching cold front will enhance the SE
return flow, becoming fresh to strong over the north-central and
northeastern Gulf. A warm front should develop near the Texas-
Louisiana coastline along the northern edge of the strong SE winds
Sat night into Sun night, enhancing the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms in the northern Gulf. The cold front should emerge
from the Texas coast Sun night, quickly move southeastward,
reaching from the Florida Big Bend coast to near Veracruz, Mexico
by Tue morning, and extending from Ft Myers, FL to the Yucatan by
Wed morning. N winds behind the front are expected to only be
moderate to fresh across the Gulf, except for strong NE winds near
Tampico, Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends west-southwestward from the Virgin Islands
across 16N70W to southeast of Jamaica at 16N75W. Widely scattered
showers are seen along and up to 80 nm north of the shear line. A
surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms just east of Honduras and Costa Rica. Moderate to
fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present near and north of the shear line across the north-central
basin, including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE to ENE
winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are found at the south-central basin
north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

In the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate
overnight. As high pressure north of the area weakens slightly,
the NE to E trade winds across the Caribbean will gradually
diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may
reach the NW Caribbean on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
to near 31N48W, then continues as a stationary front through a
1014 mb low near 21N62W to near the Virgin Islands. Scattered
moderate convection is evident near and up to 100 nm northwest of
the stationary front. A surface trough reaches southwestward from
30N47W to 24N51W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate
convection is found north of 22N between 41W and 48W. A mid to
upper-level low near the Canary Islands is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Another surface trough is
triggering isolated thunderstorms east of the Windward Islands
from 13N to 16N between 50W and 57W.

Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft exist
behind the stationary front north of 19N westward to the Florida
coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate
ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 20N between
the Africa coast and 50W/stationary front, including the Canary
Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present from 09N
to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. To the west,
gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present
from 06N to 19N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle E to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate mixed swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

In the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front is expected to
dissipate by Sun. Fresh NE winds between the Bahamas and Cuba will
diminish tomorrow as high pressure north of the area weakens.
Large N to NE swell should continue to affect most of the forecast
waters for the next couple days. On Sun night and Mon, E to SE
winds will increase from the central Bahamas to northeast Florida
ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front will
move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night and reach from
31N74W to the Upper Florida Keys by Wed night.

$$

Chan
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