[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 04N09W to 00N03W. The
ITCZ extends westward from 00N03W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 14W-52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure north of the area is producing moderate
or weaker winds over the Gulf, with the exception of fresh NE
winds over the Florida Straits. Seas 6 to 8 ft prevail in this
area. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
elsewhere across the basin. No significant deep convection is
occurring over the Gulf.

For the forecast, an approaching cold front will enhance the
return flow this weekend becoming SE fresh to strong over the N
central and NE Gulf. A warm front should develop near the Texas-
Louisiana coastline along the northern edge of the strong SE winds
Sat night into Sun night, enhancing the likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms in the N Gulf. The cold front should emerge from
the Texas coast Sun night, quickly move southeastward reaching
from the Florida Big Bend coast to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue
morning, and extending from Ft Myers, FL to the Yucatan by Wed
morning. N winds behind the front are expected to only be moderate
to fresh across the Gulf, except for strong NE winds near
Tampico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends from SE Puerto Rico near 18N66W to 16N80W to
11N83W. Fresh N to NE winds are noted west of the shear line,
while strong winds are pulsing E of the shearline, mainly along
73W. Seas of 8-9 ft prevail near 74W, while 6 -7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere across the western half of the basin. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

In the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate by
tonight. As high pressure north of the area weakens slightly, the
NE to E trade winds across the Caribbean will gradually diminish
through early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the
NW Caribbean on Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N49W to a 1015 mb low near 21N62W to
18N66W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail along the front, with
seas to 10 ft W of the front. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and in the vicinity of the front mainly N of 22N.
Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the east and west
Atlantic with no significant convection noted at this time. Fresh
easterly winds prevail in the areas of ridging, with seas to 9
ft.

In the forecast west of 55W, the front should remain to the north
of the Lesser Antilles through Sat, then dissipate by Sun. Fresh
NE winds between the Bahamas and Cuba will diminish tomorrow as
high pressure north of the area weakens. Large N to NE swell
should continue to affect most of the forecast waters for the next
couple days. On Sun night and Mon, E to SE winds will increase
from the central Bahamas to NE Florida ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Looking ahead, the cold front should
move off the NE Florida coast Tue night.

$$
ERA
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