[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N50W to eastern Puerto Rico. A recent ASCAT pass
observed moderate to fresh N to NE winds within 200 nm behind the
front. The latest altimeter data indicates seas of 10 to 12 ft are
occurring between the front and 70W. As the NE winds in the area
diminish, seas will drop below 12 ft later today.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details about the
Very Large Seas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Ghana
near 05N02W and continues southwestward to 01N05W. The ITCZ
extends westward from 01N05W to 03N50.5W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along the ITCZ south of 06N between 15W to
the NE coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging over the eastern United States is producing fresh to
strong NE to E wind across the Straights of Florida and into the
southeast Gulf with seas 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico. No
significant deep convection is occurring over the Gulf.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds over the
Florida Straits will diminish by tonight. On Sat and Sun, an
approaching cold front will enhance the return flow, becoming SE
fresh to strong over the N Gulf. The cold front should emerge from
the Texas coast Sun night, quickly move southeastward, and reach
from the Florida Big Bend coast to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue
morning. N winds behind the front are expected to be only moderate
to fresh across the Gulf, except for strong NE winds near
Tampico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends from Puerto Rico, south of Hispaniola, to
the offshore coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are
noted west of the shear line, including through the Windward and
Mona Passages and north of Colombia. Seas in these areas within
the strongest winds are 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are evident across the remainder of the Caribbean waters
west of 67W, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

In the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate by
tonight. As high pressure north of the area weakens slightly, the
NE to E trade winds across the Caribbean will gradually
diminishing early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event.

A cold front extends from near 31N50W to Puerto Rico. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed about 115 nm east of the front.
Divergence aloft ahead of an upper-level trough is maintaining
scattered showers and isolated strong convection north of 16N and
between 42W and 60W. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate
to rough seas are occurring north of 23N and east of the front to
40W. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas are
evident in the rest of the Atlantic east of 40W.

In the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from near
25N55W to Puerto Rico should stall by tonight, remain over the
waters to the north of the Lesser Antilles on Sat, then dissipate
by Sun. Fresh NE winds between the Bahamas and Cuba will diminish
by Sat as high pressure north of the area weakens. E to SE winds
will increase from the central Bahamas to NE Florida Sun night and
Mon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold
front should move off the NE Florida coast Tue night.

$$
Nepaul
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