[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N51W to eastern Puerto Rico. Behind the cold
front, earlier scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to
strong N-NE winds. Latest altimeter data indicate that seas
greater than 12 ft are occurring between the front and 70W. Peak
seas are 13 ft. As the NE winds in the area diminish, seas will
drop below 12 ft later today.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the
Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details
about the Very Large Seas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Ghana near 05N02W and continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from
03N15W to 04N35W and to 03N51W. No deep convection is observed
near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass from 02 UTC
indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds persisted across the
Straits of Florida and southeast Gulf, south of a ridge extending
across the eastern United States. The buoy showed moderate to
rough seas in the area as well. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. No significant deep
convection is occurring today over the Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf with moderate
to rough seas. The high pressure will shift east ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sun night. The
front will reach from Mobile, Alabama to near Poza Rica, Mexico by
Mon morning, and from Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz,
Mexico by Mon night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and building
seas will precede the front Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds and seas of 8 or 9 ft are expected in the
wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front extends from Puerto Rico to south
of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. A shear line continues to
Providencia Island and the Panama Canal. A scatterometer satellite
pass from 02 UTC indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds west of
the shear line with the strongest winds in the lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage. Concurrent altimeter satellite data confirmed
maximum seas of 8 to 9 ft mainly between Jamaica and Honduras.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are evident in the remainder of the
Caribbean waters west of 67W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder
of the basin.

In the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
bring a return to more typical E trade winds through early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event.

A cold front extends from near 27N55W to Puerto Rico. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed about 150 nm east of the front.
Divergence aloft ahead of an upper trough sustains scattered
showers and isolated strong convection from 17N to 20N and between
47W and 52W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring north
of 28N and east of the front to 45W. A 09Z altimeter pass showed
combined seas of 8 to 9 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident in the rest
of the Atlantic east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

In the forecast west of 55W, the southern portion of the front
will move across the waters near the northern Leeward Islands
through at least Sat then stall and dissipate. Northerly swell
will linger into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will
dominate the forecast waters over the next few days. Winds and
seas will increase from the central Bahamas to northeast Florida
Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
The cold front will move off northeast Florida late on Tue.

$$
Christensen
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