[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A cold front
passes through 31N53W to eastern Puerto Rico. Behind the cold
front, recent scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong
N-NE winds. Latest altimeter data indicate that seas greater than
12 ft are occurring between the front and 70W. Peak seas are 13
ft. As the NE winds in the area diminish, seas will drop below 12
ft early Fri.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the
Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details
about the Very Large Seas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from
06N11W to 03N33W and to 03N51W. No deep convection is observed
near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high pressure system remains over the eastern United
States and extends into the Gulf of Mexico. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds over the
eastern half of the Gulf waters, especially east of 88W. Seas in
these waters are 5-8 ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are
found in the Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. No significant deep
convection is occurring today over the Gulf.

In the forecast, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh to
strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf with moderate to
rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish some through early next
week as the high pressure shifts east, ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sun night. The front
will reach from Mobile, Alabama to near Poza Rica, Mexico by Mon
morning, and from Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico
by Mon night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and building seas will
precede the front Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds and seas of 8 or 9 ft are expected in the wake of
the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Puerto Rico to 17N73W, followed
by a shear line that continues southwestward to the SW Caribbean
before turning south toward Panama. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-force easterly
winds are occurring south of Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are evident in the remainder
of the Caribbean waters west of 67W, along with seas of 5-8 ft.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
remainder of the basin.

In the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
bring a return to more typical E trade winds Fri through early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N53W to eastern
Puerto Rico. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the front,
from 19N61W to 31N53W. Divergence aloft sustains scattered
showers and isolated strong convection north of 17N and between
45W and 52W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring north
of 27N and east of the front to 42W. Seas of 8-11 ft are present
in the area described. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate to rough seas are evident in the rest of the Atlantic
east of 50W.

Ridging dominates the southwest tropical Atlantic. Satellite
derived-wind data depict fresh to strong west of the
aforementioned cold front. More information can be found in the
Special Features section. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

In the forecast, the southern portion of the front will move
across the waters near the northern Leeward Islands through at
least Sat then stall and dissipate. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
following the front will diminish through tonight. Northerly swell
will linger into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will
dominate the forecast waters over the next few days. Winds and
seas will increase from the central Bahamas to northeast Florida
Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
The cold front will move off northeast Florida late on Tue.

$$
Delgado
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