[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event...
A cold front passes through 31N56W to near Puerto Rico at 18N66W.
Behind the cold front are fresh to strong N winds. North of 25N
between 59W-67W, very large seas with E swell and N wind waves are
occurring. Peak seas are 13 ft. As the NE winds in the area
diminish this evening, seas will drop below 12 ft late tonight.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the
Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details
about the Very Large Seas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 04N08W and
extends to 04N10W. From there, the ITCZ extends to 00N49W along
the coast of Brazil. No significant deep convection is noted this
afternoon in association with the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh to strong NE to
E winds over the eastern Gulf with moderate to rough seas. Winds
are fresh to strong over the Florida Straits and gentle to
moderate elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in the SE Gulf and 3-5 ft
elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today over
the Gulf.

In the forecast, winds and seas will diminish some through early
next week as the high pressure shifts east, ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sun night. The front
will reach from Mobile, Alabama to near Poza Rica, Mexico by Mon
morning, and from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico
by Mon night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and building seas will
precede the front Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds and seas of 8 or 9 ft are expected in the wake of
the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Puerto Rico near 18N66W to just south
of Hispaniola near 18N71W, with a shear line extending from
18N72W to 10N79W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas to 9 ft
are noted west of the shear line with the strongest winds in the
lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, the trades are
moderate to fresh. Seas over the E Caribbean are 3-5 ft and 5-7 ft
over the central Caribbean. While no deep convection is occurring
over the Caribbean, scattered showers are present over the W and
NW Caribbean to the west of the shearline.

In the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
bring a return to more typical E trade winds Fri through early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event.

A cold front extends from near 31N58W to Puerto Rico. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 18N62W to 30N54W. Ahead of the trough,
north of 18N between 47W-55W, scattered moderate convection is
occurring. North of 25N within 300 NM of the front winds are fresh
to strong. Fresh to strong winds are also noted over the central
and S Bahamas as well as north of 12N and east of 30W. In addition
to the large swell detailed above, 8 ft or greater seas cover
most of the tropical N Atlantic, except south of 22N west of 45W.

In the forecast, the southern portion of the front will move
across the waters near the northern Leeward Islands through at
least Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE winds following the front will
diminish through tonight. Northerly swell will linger into Sun.
High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast
waters over the next few days. Winds and seas will increase from
the central Bahamas to northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead
of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will
move off NE Florida late on Tue.


$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net