[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231634
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ghana near
05N02W to 03N07W. The ITCZ continues from 03N07W to 03N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident along the ITCZ south of
05N between 10W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail over
the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted elsewhere east of 90W. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft
seas are evident west of 90W. No significant deep convection is
noted at this time.

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas across the north-
central and northeastern Gulf will increase tonight between high
pressure over the Carolinas and a complex low and cold front
moving from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. A warm
front will develop ahead of the low and move northward across the
northwest Gulf tonight into Sun. Winds may reach near- gale Sun
night over the northeast Gulf, with seas building to 12 ft. The
cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf
Sun night, reaching from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon,
from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, early Tue, and then
move southeast of the Gulf early Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE
winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are generally 6 to 9 ft and
up to 10 ft off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken and shift
east today, diminishing winds and seas across the basin, although
fresh to strong trade winds will pulse of Colombia mainly
overnight through Mon night. A cold front may reach the Yucatan
Channel the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N46W to 24N46W, where it transitions
to a stationary front that reaches to near Puerto Rico. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the cold front from 25N45.5W
to 22N49W. Showers and thunderstorms are generally observed within
90 nm along either side of the frontal boundary north of 20N.
However, the strongest convection associated with this feature is
noted east of the trough north of 25N to 41W. West of the front,
seas are 8 to 11 ft, mainly due to N to NE swell lingering over
the area. A recent scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh NE
winds behind the front to 80W. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere
ahead of the front with generally moderate NE to E winds and 6 to
8 ft seas in NE to E swell.

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from near 24N55W
to near Puerto Rico will dissipate tonight. Fresh to occasionally
strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell will persist mainly
north of 22N through early Sun, and north of 24N into the middle
of next week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and mid-
Atlantic states and broad low pressure develops east of the area.
A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast the middle
of next week and reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed
night.

$$
Nepaul
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