[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A couple of fronts will merge in the W
Atlantic tonight, reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Thu
morning, then stall from near 24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola
Fri morning. Gale-force winds are expected both ahead of and
behind this front, to the north of 27N, Wed evening through Thu
evening. Seas will build to 18 ft by Thu. Conditions will quickly
improve Fri as the front weakens and moves E.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W to 05N17W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 04N47W. A surface trough is analyzed
south of 14N, along 49W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 10N and between 25W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from SW Florida to near 22N93W then
continues to the central Bay of Campeche. A second cold front
stretches from the Florida Big Bend to near 24N97W. Multilayer
cloudiness covers most of the Gulf of Mexico behind the frontal
boundaries, along with a few showers.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure over Mexico and
lower pressures associated with the fronts sustain fresh NE winds
south of 24N and west of the southernmost front. Seas in these
waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the fronts will merge today, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds. Fresh to strong northwest winds are
expected along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon
through Wed. High pressure behind the second front will shift E
into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh return
flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat, ahead of the next
cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dry airmass covers the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the
development of deep convection. The tight pressure gradient
continues to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off the coast of NW
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are present in the
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 4-7 ft.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
prevail across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean
through Wed. Fresh trades and large NE swell are expected to
continue across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the
Lesser Antilles through Thu night. A cold front is expected to
move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, and reach from the
N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Fri morning,
where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to
strong NE winds are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
front SW of the Yucatan Channel on Wed night. Strong winds will
develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening through Sat with the
front, and will also return to the waters offshore of NW Colombia
during that time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning for the west-central waters.

A cold front enters the southwest North Atlantic near 31N70W to
26N80W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
found behind the frontal boundary. A surface trough extends along
74W with no significant convection. The remainder of the SW North
Atlantic (W of 55W) is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of
4-8 ft are prevalent.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 8-10 ft south of 20N. The strongest winds and
highest seas are noted east of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high near 29N46W will shift SE
and weaken through Wed, ahead of a cold front that is currently
off the coast of eastern Florida and into the offshore Atlantic W
of 70W. Fresh E winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail S of 22N
and E of 70W and will gradually subside today. The cold front will
drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue night. The next cold
front is expected to enter the NW waters tonight, reach from near
Bermuda to central Cuba Thu morning, then stall from near 24N55W
to the N coast of Hispaniola Fri morning. Gale-force winds and
high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the
north of 27N, Wed evening through Thu evening.

$$
ERA
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