[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Dec 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Two cold fronts will merge in the Western Atlantic Ocean
tomorrow night. The resulting cold front will reach from
Bermuda beyond SE Cuba. Gale-force winds, and sea heights
that will range from 10 feet to 15 feet, are forecast for
Wednesday afternoon from 30N to 31N between 71W and 77W.
Thursday morning: gale-force winds and sea heights that
will range from 12 feet to 18 feet in W to NW swell, are
forecast from 28N northward between 58W and 64W. Expect
SW gale-force winds, and sea heights that will range from
11 feet to 15 feet in SW to W swell, from 29N northward
between 50W and 58W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 06N30W 07N40W 07N46W. A surface trough is along
50W/52W, from 15N southward to NE Venezuela. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 310 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough between 10W and 15W; and
from 03N to 11N between 30W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Bahamas along 25N/26N,
through the Straits of Florida, to 24N85W. The front is
stationary, from 24N85W, curving to 23N92W, and to the
central sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. A secondary cold front is about 240 nm to the north
of the first cold front in Florida; and from 100 nm to
200 nm to the north and northwest of the stationary part
of the frontal boundary. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is from 20N to 25N between 90W
and 95W. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Mostly fresh to some strong northerly winds are from 24N
southward from 91W westward. Mostly moderate to some rough
seas are from 23N northward from 92W westward. Moderate or
slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are in the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from 25N85W to the central
Bay of Campeche. A second cold front extends across the
central portion of the basin from Clearwater, Florida
to 24N96W. The second front will move SE and the fronts
will merge today, accompanied by fresh to strong winds
N of the merged fronts. Fresh to strong northwest winds
are expected along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico this
afternoon through Wed. High pressure behind the second
front will shift E into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing
moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin
Fri through Sat, ahead of the next cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 25N72W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the SE Bahamas, and through the Windward Passage,
to 16N75W in the Caribbean Sea. An Atlantic Ocean cold
front is along 29N70W 25N80W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 14N in the Caribbean Sea
to the cold front between 70W and 80W.

Rough seas are off the coast of Panama and Colombia from
14N southward between 74W and 80W. Moderate seas are in
the rest of the area that is from Jamaica southward from
Central America eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force easterly
winds are from 15N southward between 70W and 78W. Fresh
easterly winds are in the remainder of the central
one-third of the area. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Shallow patches of moisture are supporting isolated showers
throughout the area. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N
from 75W, westward, beyond western Panama and southern Costa
Rica.

Fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will prevail across
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed.
Fresh trades and large NE swell are expected to continue across
the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles
through Thu night. A cold front is expected to move into the
northwestern Caribbean early Wed, and reach from the N coast of
Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Fri morning, where it will
remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected to develop in the vicinity of the front across the
Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba on Wed night. Strong winds
will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening through Sat with
the front, and will also return to the waters offshore of NW
Colombia during that time.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the NE parts of the Atlantic
Ocean, toward the central Atlantic waters. A shear line
continues from the central Atlantic Ocean, toward the
central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 500 nm to the south of the cold front
from 35W eastward.

Moderate to rough seas are from 04N to 20N between 34W and
60W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Mostly fresh to some strong NE to E winds are from 22N
southward between 26W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from
11N to 25N from 24W eastward. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 28N47W and extends
a ridge W-SW to a surface trough along 73.5W. The high will
shift SE and weaken through Wed, ahead of a cold front that
extends across the western Atlantic W of 67W to the Straights
of Florida. Fresh E winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail
S of 22N and E of 70W and will gradually subside today. The
cold front will drift SE and weaken considerably through
tonight. The next cold front has moved off the NE coast of
Florida and extends across the NW waters. This front will
reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Thu morning, then
stall from near 24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola Fri
morning. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected both
ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 27N, Wed
evening through Thu evening.

$$
mt/ss
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