[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050459
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter the
waters off NE Florida Tue night, reach from near Bermuda to
central Cuba Thu morning, then stall from near 24N55W to the N
coast of Hispaniola Fri morning. Gale-force winds are expected
both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 27N, Wed
evening through Thu evening. Seas will build to 18 ft by Thu.
Conditions will quickly improve Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 05N43W. A surface
trough is analyzed south of 11N, along 47W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 10N and between 21W and 37W. A few
showers are seen near the surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to near 23N89W, where it
transitions into a stationary front to the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico. A secondary cold front stretches from the Florida
panhandle to the northern coast of Tamaulipas, Mexico. Multilayer
cloudiness covers most of the Gulf of Mexico behind the frontal
boundaries, along with with a few showers. Also, storms that
developed over the western Yucatan peninsula are moving into the
eastern Bay of Campeche.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure over Mexico and
lower pressures associated with the fronts sustain fresh to
locally strong NE winds south of 24N and west of the southernmost
front. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from 26N81W to 22N89W, then
becomes stationary through the central Bay of Campeche. The next
cold front has entered the northern portion of the basin extending
from 29N85W to 26N97W. The fronts will move SE through the week,
accompanied by fresh to locally strong winds north of the fronts.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected along the coast near
Veracruz, Mexico Tue through Wed. High pressure behind the second
front will shift E into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate
to fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat,
ahead of the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dry airmass covers the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the
development of deep convection. The tight pressure gradient
continues to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The
strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off the coast of NW
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are present in the
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 4-7 ft.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will extend W-SW to the SE
Bahamas through early Wed, maintaining fresh to strong trade
winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions of
the SW Caribbean. S of the ridge, fresh trades and large NE
swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed night. A
cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean
early Wed, and reach from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf
of Honduras by Fri morning, where it will remain nearly
stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to
develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening through Sat with the
front, and will also return to the waters offshore of NW Colombia
during that time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning for the NW waters.

A cold front enters the southwest North Atlantic near 31N73W to
the West Palm Beach, Florida, area. A few showers are evident near
the boundary. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are found behind the frontal boundary. The remainder of the SW
North Atlantic (west of 55W) is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and seas
of 4-8 ft are prevalent.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 7-10 ft south of 20N. The strongest winds and
highest seas are noted east of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure of 1025 mb is centered
near 29N46W and extends a ridge W-SW to a surface trough along
71W. The high will shift SE and weaken through Wed, ahead of a
cold front that is currently off the coast of northeastern Florida
and into the offshore Atlantic. Fresh E winds and rough seas in
NE swell prevail S of 25N and E of 66W and will gradually subside
tonight. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda through the
NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys Tue morning, then drift SE and
weaken considerably through Tue night. The next cold front is
expected to enter the NW waters Tue night, reach from near Bermuda
to central Cuba Thu morning, then stall from near 24N55W to the N
coast of Hispaniola Fri morning. Gale-force winds and high seas
are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of
27N, Wed evening through Thu evening.

$$
Delgado
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