[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: The National Weather Service in Miami,
Florida has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the coastal waters
within 20 nm of shore from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee and to
Bonita Beach. Dense fog is expected to reduce visibilities to 1/4
nm or less. In some locations, visibilities are already under 1
nm and are expected to diminish overnight. Low visibility will
make navigation difficult. The Dense Fog Advisory will remain in
effect through 9 AM EST Monday. For more information, please
visit www.weather.gov

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 07N30W.
A surface trough is analyzed W of the end of the ITCZ, and runs
from 12N33W to near 06N34W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted on either side of the trough and mainly from 05N to 10N
between 30W and 38W. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift
related to the trough as well as fresh to strong easterly winds.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft in this area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on DENSE
FOG in the SE Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters.

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Cape San Blas in the
Florida Panhandle to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Abundant
cloudiness, with possible showers is noted in the wake of the
front. A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms is just ahead
of the front. Gentle to moderate N winds follow the front, with
the exception of fresh to strong NW winds in the SW Gulf near
the Veracruz area where seas are 6 t0 8 ft. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft are observed ahead of the front. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Yucatan
Peninsula.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Ft. Myers, FL to
the E Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from west-central Cuba to
the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue evening, before moving SE of
the basin early Wed. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected
in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico through Wed. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are expected Mon night through Tue night S of
25N becoming fresh N to NE winds Wed across all but NW portions
of the basin. Otherwise, there is a Dense Fog Advisory for SW
Florida, that will persist through Monday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian
low continues to support strong to near-gale force trades in the
south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near the coast
of Colombia. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds based on an
altimeter pass and buoy 42058 located near 15N75W. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh trades are observed with seas of 5 to
7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean,
except in the lee of Cuba where seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted.
Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered
passing showers.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain N of the
Caribbean Sea through late Tue, maintaining fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Wed when a cold front will move N of
the region. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the SW basin Thu
evening and prevail through Fri night as high pressure builds E
of the Bahamas in the wake of the front. Fresh trades and large
NE swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. A cold
front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early
Wed, move SE, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by Thu morning. Fresh N to NE winds and building seas are likely
behind the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to
develop in the Windward passage Thu night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between an occluded low of 1012 mb located
near 28N38W and high pressure of 1025 mb situated to the NW of
the low center near 32N49W was producing an area of gale force
winds in the NW quadrant of the low, particularly north of 28N
between 35W and 42W. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of
these wind speeds Sun morning. The Gale Warning was allowed to
expire at 18Z. Seas of 12 to 14 ft are still noted in association
with the low center. Seas greater than 12 ft dominate the waters
N of 26N and E of 43W to a line from 31N35W to 26N42W. The low
pressure will move NE and away from the forecast region in about
24 hours. Seas will subside below 12 ft by tonight, and winds
will decrease below 25 kt on Mon. The cold front associated with
this low extends from 31N31W to 21n40w to 19N58W. A few showers
are along the front.

A weak surface trough is along 66W/67W S of 24N to near Puerto
Rico. A well defined swirl of low clouds is related to the
trough, forecast to move westward towards the SE Bahamas and
eastern Cuba during the next 24-48 hours. The eastern Atlantic is
under the influence of a 1021 mb high pressure located E of the
Madeira Islands. Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic flow is
noted in this area, including the Canary Islands. Elsewehre
across the tropical Atlantic waters moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong E winds
and rough seas in N swell S of 25N and E of 65W will gradually
subside through Mon. Strong high pressure centered E of Bermuda
will shift SE and weaken early this week, ahead of the next cold
front that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern
Florida on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N76W to Ft.
Lauderdale, FL Mon evening, and weaken considerably as it reaches
from near 31N58W to the northwestern Bahamas Tue evening. Another
strong cold front is expected to move across the NW waters Tue
night and move away of the region Thu night. This front will be
followed by strong to near-gale force NW winds north of 27N, with
gale force winds possible north of 29N, and quickly building
seas.

$$
GR
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