[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: The National Weather Service in Miami,
Florida has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the coastal waters
within 20 nm of shore from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee and to
Bonita Beach. Dense fog is expected to reduce visibilities to 1/4
nm or less, which is already occurring in inland locations. Low
visibility will make navigation difficult. The Dense Fog Advisory
will remain in effect through 9 AM EST Monday. For more
information, please visit www.weather.gov

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 07N19W to 06N35W. A surface trough is analyzed south
of 14N, along 37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 03N to 11N and between 20W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Dense
Fog Advisory issued for the SE Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters.

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near Apalachicola
to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. A few showers are seen near and
north of northern Yucatan. Multilayer clouds cover the Gulf of
Mexico behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico, along with seas of
4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent
in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will reach from Ft.
Myers, FL to the E Bay of Campeche Mon, and from west-central
Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue evening, before moving
SE of the basin by early Wed. Fresh to strong northwest winds are
expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico through Mon
evening as the front moves away from the area. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are expected Mon night through Tue night S of 25N
becoming fresh N to NE winds Wed across all but NW portions of the
basin. Otherwise, there is a Dense Fog Advisory for the coastal
waters within 20 nm of shore from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee
and to Bonita Beach. The fog is expected through Monday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1027 mb high pressure system over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force
easterly trade winds continue affecting the waters of the south-
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to
strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the
north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 4-7 ft.

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2-5 ft are
prevalent. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. The strongest showers are seen in the
Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will extend to the
northern Caribbean through late Tue, maintaining fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Wed when a cold front will move N of
the region. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the SW basin Thu
evening and prevail through Fri night as high pressure builds E of
the Bahamas in the wake of the front. Fresh trades and large NE
swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic
waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. A cold
front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early
Wed, move SE, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by Thu morning. Fresh N to NE winds and building seas are likely
behind the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to develop
in the Windward passage Thu night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the triple point of an occluded low,
entering the basin near 31N29W to 20N40W to 18N55W. The 1013 mb
occluded low is centered near 29N37W. A few showers are present
near the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured fresh to strong northerly winds to the west of the low
pressure, mainly north of 25N and between 37W and 42W. Seas in
these waters are 8-12 ft. Farther west, a surface trough is
analyzed along 67W, from 18N to 27N. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
and seas of 7-10 ft are found from 17N to 26N and between the cold
front and the surface trough. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the SW North Atlantic.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad
ridging positioned over the central Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft,
primarily south of 17N. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh E winds and rough seas in N
swell S of 25N and E of 65W will gradually subside through Mon.
Strong high pressure centered E of Bermuda will shift SE and
weaken into early week, ahead of the next cold front that is
expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida on Mon.
The front will reach from near 31N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, FL Mon
evening, and weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N58W to
the northwestern Bahamas Tue evening. Another cold front is
expected to move across the NW waters Tue night and move away of
the region Thu night. This second front will be followed by strong
to near-gale force NW winds north of 27N, with gale force winds
possible north of 29N, and quickly building seas.

$$
Delgado
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