[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031859
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023

UPDATED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DENSE FOG

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: 1014 mb low pressure is centered near
28N38W. Cyclonic gales are north of 28N between 35W and 42W. Seas
12 ft or greater are north of 25N between 37W and 44W with peak
seas to 16 ft. The low pressure will drift ENE today. Gale force
winds will continue this afternoon until the low weakens this
evening. Seas will begin to diminish this evening. Winds will
decrease below 25 kt and seas will subside below 12 ft on Mon.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: The National Weather Service in Miami,
Florida has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the coastal waters
within 20 nm of shore from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee and to
Bonita Beach. Dense fog is expected to reduce visibilities to 1/4
nm or less. In some locations, visibilities are already under 1
nm and are expected to diminish overnight. Low visibility will
make navigation difficult. The Dense Fog Advisory will remain in
effect through 9 AM EST Monday. For more information, please visit
www.weather.gov

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 06N11W to 07N30W. Two surface troughs are
west of the terminus of the ITCZ; the first is along 33W from 03N
to 12N and the second is along 38W from 04N to 10N. Scatterometer
data this morning showed fresh trades from 08N to 13N between 31W
and 39W. The data also showed strong to near-gale force trades
from 08N to 12N between 33W and 35W. Seas are 8-9 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 28W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on DENSE
FOG in the SE Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters.

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Panama City, Florida to
Heroica Veracruz, Mexico. Doppler radar in Tampa Bay and
Tallahassee show scattered moderate convection along the frontal
boundary. Visible satellite indicates that the scattered moderate
convection is also along the remainder of the front out of range
of radar. In the SW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico, NE winds are strong to near-gale force with building seas
of 7 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, winds are moderate to locally
fresh and seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Apalachicola, FL
to the western Bay of Campeche this evening, from Ft. Myers, FL
to the south- central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from west-
central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the central Bay
of Campeche Tue evening, before moving SE of the basin early Wed.
Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf
near Veracruz, Mexico today through Wed. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are expected Mon night through Tue night S of 25N becoming
fresh N to NE winds Wed across all but NW portions of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic continues to force a
tight pressure gradient with the Colombian/Panamanian Low. Fresh
to strong trades continue across the central Caribbean, with
highest winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft from 10N to 17N between 72W and 81W.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail in other sections of the basin
with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will extend to the
northern Caribbean through late Tue, maintaining fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh trades and large NE
swell are expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters, to the
east of the Lesser Antilles, today through Wed. A cold front is
expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, move
SE, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu.
Fresh N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on a GALE WARNING
near 30N38W.

As mentioned in the gale warning section, 1014 mb low pressure is
centered near 28N38W. Visible satellite and scatterometer wind
data indicate the system is a mature Shapiro-Keyser Extratropical
Cyclone. The occluded front extends from 27N41W to 31N37W to the
triple point at 31N32W. (The triple point is where the occluded,
cold, and warm fronts intersect.) The cold front extends from the
triple point at 331N32W to 20N47W. A weakening stalled front
extends from 20N47W to 20N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the fronts. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 8-11 ft
seas are north of the cold and stalled fronts.

A weak surface trough is along 64W from 18N to 28N. 1020 mb high
pressure is centered between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde.
The subtropical ridge anchored north of the area continues to
support gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to locally strong E winds and
rough seas in N swell prevail S of 26N and E of 65W will
gradually subside through Mon. Strong high pressure centered E of
Bermuda will shift SE and weaken into early next week, ahead of
the next cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast of
northeastern Florida early Mon. The front will reach from near
31N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, FL Mon evening, and weaken considerably
as it reaches from near 31N58W to the northwestern Bahamas Tue
evening. Another strong cold front is expected to move across the
NW waters Wed and Wed night, progressing eastward into Thu. This
front will be followed by strong to near-gale force NW winds north
of 27N, with gale force winds possible north of 29N, and quickly
building seas.

$$
Mahoney
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