[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Ten is in the Yucatan Channel,
near 20.7N 86.8W,at 27/0600 UTC. This position also is 13 nm, or
25 km, to the NNE of Cozumel in Mexico. T.D. TEN is moving toward
the SW, or 230 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30
knots with gusts to 40 knots. Expect winds from 20 knots to 30
knots, and sea heights less than 8 feet, from 20N to 23N between
85W and 88W. The hazards that are forecast to affect land are:
rainfall, tropical storm-force winds, and storm surge.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 630 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 480 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant, and within 180 nm of the center in
the N semicircle.

The center of Hurricane Franklin, at 27/0300 UTC, is near 23.9N
68.2W. FRANKLIN is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 07 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots.
Tropical storm-force winds are: within 120 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 100 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 80 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Hurricane-force winds are: within
20 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 10 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The radius of
the sea heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 180 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and
within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights that are near the center are 27 feet. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant and in the SW quadrant, and from 23N to 24N between
64W and 65W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
the northern sides of the Caribbean Sea islands to 27N between
60W and 73W. The swells that are being generated by Franklin are
expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night. It is likely
that these swells are going to cause life- threatening surf and
rip current conditions late this weekend into early next week, in
parts of the U.S.A. east coast. Please, consult
bulletins/forecasts from your local weather office.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. Please, refer to
the following website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more information
about Tropical Depression TEN, and Hurricane FRANKLIN, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical
wave and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 10N
to 18N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 720 nm
to the west of the tropical wave, from the monsoon trough
southward for 340 nm.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 13N
between 41W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau, to 10N26W, and 10N41W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 720 nm to the
west of the 25W/26W tropical wave, from the monsoon trough
southward for 340 nm.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. All the action is
centering around the expectations of Tropical Depression Ten,
whose center is in the Yucatan Channel.

The sea heights are reaching: 4 feet in the central sections of
the Gulf of Mexico, and in the coastal waters of Mexico along 20N;
3 feet off the NE coast of Mexico; 1 foot off the west central
coast of Florida; 2 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower winds are
elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, away from the developing Tropical
Depression TEN.

Tropical Depression Ten is near 21.1N 86.4W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Ten
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.9N 86.4W Sun morning,
move to 20.9N 86.2W Sun evening, 21.6N 85.9W Mon morning, 23.1N
85.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 25.0N 85.5W Tue
morning, and 27.5N 84.8W Tue evening. Ten will weaken to a
tropical storm while moving inland over 32.7N 81.5W late Wed. High
pressure and improving conditions will arrive in the wake of Ten
late in the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is in the Yucatan Channel.

The sea heights are reaching: 2 feet to 3 feet in the far NW
corner of the area; 2 feet in the coastal waters of Venezuela and
Colombia, and in the coastal waters of Puerto Rico; 1 foot
elsewhere. Mostly gentle to some moderate winds cover the entire
area, away from the developing Tropical Depression TEN.

The monsoon trough passes through 10N73W in Colombia, to 08.5N80W
in Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 125 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough between NW Venezuela and 79W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 60 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough.

Tropical Depression Ten is near 21.1N 86.4W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Ten
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.9N 86.4W Sun morning,
move to 20.9N 86.2W Sun evening, 21.6N 85.9W Mon morning, moving
away from the area to 23.1N 85.7W Mon evening, strengthen to a
hurricane near 25.0N 85.5W Tue morning, and 27.5N 84.8W Tue
evening. Other than Ten, gentle to moderate winds will prevail
across the basin through the remainder of the weekend, increasing
to moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean early in the week,
then in the central Caribbean by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Hurricane Franklin.

INVEST AL92 is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 26N50W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is 20N
northward between 40W and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea
heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are from 20N northward
between 44W and 56W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the area that
is from 20N northward between 20W and 43W. A surface trough passes
through 31N32W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near
28N33W, to 23N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 26N northward between 20W and 36W. The sea
heights in this area are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are to the E and SE of the line 31N18W 23N24W.
Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 20N northward from 45W
eastward.

Moderate or slower wind speeds, and moderate seas, cover the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Franklin is near 23.9N 68.2W at 11 PM EDT, and is
moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 975 mb.
Franklin will move to 24.9N 68.9W Sun morning, 26.2N 69.8W Sun
evening, 27.6N 70.4W Mon morning, 29.2N 70.4W Mon evening, 30.8N
69.9W Tue morning, and 32.5N 68.9W Tue evening. Franklin will
change little in intensity as it moves well N of the area to 35.8N
63.7W late Wed. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Ten is in the NW
Caribbean Sea near 21.1N 86.4W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving
southwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Ten is
forecast to move across northern Florida Tue night into Wed,
moving inland over 32.7N 81.5W late Wed with increasing winds and
seas offshore northern Florida.

$$
mt/jl
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