[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently upgraded Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 21.1N
86.1W at 26/2100 UTC or 60 nm NE of Cozumel Mexico, stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection stretches across the Yucatan Channel, NW
Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico from 18N to 24N between 80W
and 90W. Seas are currently near 6 ft N of the Yucatan channel.
The depression will have little overall movement through Sunday. A
slow, generally northward, motion is expected to begin on Monday.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. Seas
over 12 ft can be expected by Mon and will continue to build as TD
Ten moves northward on Mon.

Hurricane Franklin is centered near 23.8N 67.5W at 26/2100 UTC
or 240 nm NE of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted from 22N to 26N between 65W and 70W.
Peak seas are currently near 19 ft with the 12 ft seas extending
150 nm in the eastern semicircle, 90 nm in the NW quadrant and 45
nm in the SW quadrant. Franklin will continue moving NNW to N over
the western Atlantic through early next week. Further
strengthening is forecast, and Franklin could become a major
hurricane early next week. Seas near the center will build to over
20 ft by Sun night and will continue to be over 20 ft through at
least midweek. Meanwhile, swells generated by Franklin are
expected to begin affecting Bermuda by Sunday night. These swells
are also likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions late this weekend into early next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest TD
Ten and Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near
the trough axis, bringing some rain activity to the Cabo Verde
Islands.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of
14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 05N to 13N and between 40W and
50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The
Gambia near 13N17W to 09N34W to 10N50W. The ITCZ is not present at
this time. The current convection is associated with tropical
waves described in the section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Depression Ten centered in the Yucatan Channel.

Water vapor satellite imagery depict an upper level low over
Mexico and a weak surface trough extends from NW Yucatan to
Tamaulipas. Divergence aloft results in isolated to scattered
moderate convection persisting north of the surface trough to
26N. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak
1013 mb high pressure system centered in western basin. Outside of
the southern Gulf influenced by TD Ten, moderate or weaker winds
and 2-4 ft seas prevail across most of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure across the central U.S. will
shift slightly SE through early Mon. Tropical Depression Ten will
meander about the Yucatan Channel while gradually strengthening
through early Mon, then move to near 22.0N 85.7W Mon afternoon, to
near 24.0N 85.6W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near
26.3N 85.3W Tue afternoon, then move inland across the Florida Big
Bend early Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Tropical
Depression Ten centered in the Yucatan Channel.

Aside from Tropical Depression Ten, a surface trough extends
across Hispaniola to 20N80W. This feature combined with plenty of
tropical moisture and divergence aloft sustain scattered to
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection north of 13N and
between 69W and 79W. These storms are also affecting SE Cuba.
Generally dry conditions are prevalent in the rest of the
Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient maintains primarily light to
gentle variable winds, except for stronger winds near the areas of
strong convection. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate in the
S-central and SE Caribbean, and slight seas will prevail across
the basin through the weekend as Hurricane Franklin moves
northward and away from the Caribbean region. Tropical Depression
Ten will meander about the Yucatan Channel through early Mon
while gradually strengthening to a Tropical Storm, then move
northward to near 22.0N 85.7W Mon afternoon, to near 24.0N 85.6W
Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 26.3N 85.3W Tue
afternoon. High pressure will build modestly across the Atlc to
the N of the region Tue and Wed to bring a return to moderate to
fresh trade winds E of 80W, locally strong in the central
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on
Hurricane Franklin.

The stationary boundary previously stretching southwest of Bermuda
has weakened into a surface trough. No deep convection is noted
near this boundary. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure system (Invest
92L) is located near 25N50W in the central Atlantic and producing
a large area and elongated area of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly from 22N to 31N and between 44W and 56W. Moderate to
locally fresh SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are occurring in the
area described. The disturbance has a low chance of development
over the next 48 hours.

Another weak low pressure is centered near 28N33W with a trough
extending along the low from 31N30W to 28N40W. Convective activity
associated with this system is occurring north of 31N. The
remainder of the basin, outside of the deep tropics, is under the
dominance of a dry airmass. The pressure gradient between a ridge
north of the Azores and lower pressures over NW Africa support
fresh northerly winds off Western Sahara, along with seas of 5-7
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Franklin is expected to
strengthen during the next few days, and will move to near 24.7N
68.1W Sun morning, near 25.9N 68.9W Sun afternoon, near 27.1N
69.6W Mon morning, to near 28.7N 69.9W Mon afternoon, to near
30.3N 69.9W Tue morning, and exit the area moving N-NE Tue
afternoon and evening. High pressure will build westward across
the region Tue and Wed as Franklin exits. Winds are expected to
increase offshore Florida Tue night through Wed as a Tropical
Depression Ten moves N-NE across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
AReinhart
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