[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Franklin is centered near 24.7N 68.7W at 27/0900 UTC
or 230 nm NE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are around 30 ft as of
09 UTC. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 60 nm of the center, elsewhere from 22N to 25N between 70W
and 73W, in a band between 75 nm and 150 nm in the N semicircle,
and in another band between 150 nm and 240 nm in the SE quadrant.
A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today,
followed by a northward and north-northeastward motion into the
early part of the week. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the
next 24 hours, and Franklin could become a major hurricane by
tonight. Swells generated by Franklin are expected to begin
affecting Bermuda by tonight. These swells are also likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions beginning
late today through the beginning of this week along portions of
the east coast of the United States. Please consult products from
your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Depression Ten is centered near 20.1N 86.8W at 27/0900
UTC or 30 nm SSE of Cozumel Mexico, moving S at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft
as of 09 UTC. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
noted within 60 nm in the S semicircle, and in a band between 60
nm and 240 nm in the SE semicircle. Similar convection is noted in
a band well away from the center between 360 nm and 660 nm in the
E quadrant, and from 14N to 17N between 83W and 86W. Ten is
likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday.
A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected
later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. Heavy rainfall from
Tropical Depression Ten is expected across the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas
of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western
Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of
the Southeast U.S. by mid to late week. Minor coastal flooding is
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan
Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Ten NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic Ocean: Meteo-France has a Gale
Warning in place for the Agadir zone from 12 UTC until 00 UTC this
evening for N-NE gale force winds. Seas may be 8-11 ft. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/ for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 27W, from 20N
southward, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 27W
and 37W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 46W, from 14N
southward, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt.  Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 41W
and 51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau near 12.5N17W to 10N40W. No ITCZ is evident in
the Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 08N between 18W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is near the Yucatan
Channel.

Outside of T.D. Ten, weak ridging extends along 27N with gentle to
moderate winds. Seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted
in the W-central Gulf from 20N to 25N between 94W and the coast of
Mexico due to a mid to upper level feature.

For the forecast, Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near
20.1N 86.5W this afternoon, move to 20.6N 86.3W Mon morning, 21.7N
86.3W Mon afternoon, 23.3N 86.2W Tue morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 25.7N 85.7W Tue afternoon, and 28.5N 84.7W Wed
morning. Ten will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland
over 33.0N 81.2W early Thu. High pressure and improving conditions
will arrive in the wake of Ten late in the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Depression Ten, whose center is near the Yucatan
Channel.

Outside of T.D. Ten, a weak pressure pattern dominates the basin.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, except light to gentle in
the central Caribbean. Seas are 1-3 ft. Convection in the basin is
described above.

For the forecast, Ten will strengthen to a tropical storm near
20.1N 86.5W this afternoon, move to 20.6N 86.3W Mon morning,
21.7N 86.3W Mon afternoon, 23.3N 86.2W Tue morning, strengthen to
a hurricane near 25.7N 85.7W Tue afternoon, and move well N to
28.5N 84.7W Wed morning. Other than Ten, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the basin through the remainder of the
weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean
early in the week, then in the central Caribbean by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Hurricane Franklin, and for details on Tropical Depression Ten
which could impact the waters off the SE United States.

Outside of Franklin, gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 55W,
along with seas of 3-5 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from
13N to 21N between 54W and 61W, and from 24N to 26N between 56W
and 60W.

To the E, 1012 mb low pressure (invest AL92) is located near
27N51.5W with winds of 20 kt or less, and seas around 6 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm in the S and
SW quadrants, and 120 nm in the N quadrant. A 1015 mb low pressure
area is located near 28N33W along a NE to SW trough. Some
scattered thunderstorms are N of 30N between 29W and 33W. Gentle
to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate the remainder of the
open waters.

For the forecast, Franklin will move to 25.6N 69.4W this
afternoon, 26.9N 70.3W Mon morning, 28.4N 70.6W Mon afternoon,
29.9N 70.4W Tue morning, 31.3N 69.5W Tue afternoon, moving well N
of the area to 33.0N 67.9W Wed morning. Meanwhile, Tropical
Depression Ten is forecast to move across northern Florida Tue
night through Wed, with increasing winds and seas offshore
northern Florida.

$$
Lewitsky
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