[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241137
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 21.9N 70.4W at 24/0900
UTC or 45 nm ENE of Grand Turk Island, and moving N at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center in the
eastern semicircle only. Peak seas are 16 ft, and seas of 12 ft or
greater extend outward up to 60 nm from the center. A turn to the
northeast and then east-northeast with a decrease in forward
speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Franklin will continue to move farther away
from the Dominican Republic and over the southwestern Atlantic
into the weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Franklin
is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low pressure system
(remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is located near 29.5N49W
moving N. Near-gale to gale SE to S winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are
found within 120 nm E of the center. Numerous moderate convection
is noted from 25N to 31N between 44W and 49.5W. Gales will
continue on the east side of the center until after the system
moves north of 31N at 1800 UTC today. This system is likely to
regenerate into a tropical storm by Friday. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 08N to 22N,
passing just west of a 1008 mb low pressure (AL92) at 17N38.5W.
It is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 14N to 20N between 36W and 42W.
Fresh winds are in the NE semicircle of the low along with seas 5
to 7 ft. Despite marginal environmental conditions, slow
development is possible and the low could become a tropical
depression by the weekend while the system moves WNW to NW into
the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to
03N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N and
120 nm S of the ITCZ between 20W and 34W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A large elongated upper-level low near the NW Yucatan Peninsula
is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern Gulf as well as the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a
1014 mb high over the NW Gulf is leading to drier weather there.
High pressure ridging extending from that high covers the northern
Gulf, leading to light to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas. Over the
southern Gulf, moderate E winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the upcoming weekend, providing mainly gentle to moderate
winds. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form late this
weekend near the Yucatan Channel. Some gradual development is
possible early next week as it moves slowly N or NNE across the
eastern Gulf. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Franklin just north of Hispaniola.

The southeastern quadrant of a large elongated upper-level low
over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean Sea NW of a line
extending from 18N88W to 21.5N 81.5W. Additional thunderstorms
offshore Nicaragua and eastern Honduras are related to the east
Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers are noted offshore
Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the Windward
Passage, possibly related to the fact that this location is only
250 nm SW of Franklin.

Winds and seas over the north central Caribbean have now
diminished since Franklin is located well north of Hispaniola now,
moving northward. Light to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail across the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, winds and seas will remain fairly quiet through
Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form in a
couple of days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the weekend and early
next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves
slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Please refer
to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Franklin north of Hispaniola, and a Gale Warning
associated with the remnants of Emily over the central subtropical
Atlantic. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on
Invest AL92 located over the central Tropical Atlantic.

A 1010 mb low pressure near 18N59W is the remnant low of Gert.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 54W
and 59.5W. Winds are near 15 kt and seas are 4-5 ft there.

A cold front extends westward from a 1010 mb low near 30N73W to
28N76.5W to Daytona Beach, FL. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
and 5 to 8 ft seas are north of the front.

Outside of the areas near Franklin, the remnants of Emily, The
cold front east of Florida, and Invest AL92, winds are light to
moderate and seas are 3 to 6 ft across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Franklin will move
to near 23.5N 67.0W Fri afternoon, 25N66W Sat afternoon while
strengthening to a hurricane, 29N68W late Sun night with max winds
of 95 kt, and to near 33.5N 68.0W late Mon night. A cold front
extending from 30N73W to 28N77W to Daytona Beach, FL will reach
from near 31N66W to West Palm Beach, FL this evening before
stalling and gradually weakening. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds and building seas will continue north of the front
through this evening.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net