[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 21.2N 70.4W at 24/0300
UTC or 45 nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, and moving NNE at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 60 nm
northeast of the center, and over Puerto Rico and eastern
Hispaniola. A turn to the northeast and then east- northeast with
a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday.
Franklin will continue to move farther away from Hispaniola and
over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next several days, and
Franklin could approach hurricane strength over the southwestern
Atlantic by Saturday. Some heavy showers are still possible for
Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos and Puerto Rico overnight,
sustaining the threat of flashing flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure system (remnants of
former Tropical Storm Emily) located near 29N50W at 00Z, about
800 miles miles east-southeast of the Bermuda. Near-gale to gale E
to SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are found just north and northeast
of the center, north of 28N between 47W and 49W. As this system
continues to move NNE over the next couple of days, these winds
and seas will shift north of 31N on Thu evening. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near and east of the center, north of
27N between 45W and 49W. In addition, the upper-level environment
is expected to become more conducive for tropical development on
Thu. Therefore, there is a high chance for tropical cyclone
formation on this system over the next 7 days. This system is
likely to redevelop into a tropical storm over the subtropical
central Atlantic near Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 22N southward,
passing just west of a 1008 mb low pressure (AL92) at 17N37W. It
is moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 13N to 22N between 35W and 42W. Environmental conditions
remain marginally favorable for some slow development for the next
several days. A tropical depression might form this weekend as it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central
tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours, and medium chance through 7
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-Gambia
border, then continues southwestward to 08N21W. No significant
convection is near the monsoon trough on the latest analysis. An
ITCZ continues from 08N21W through 05N35W to just east of Amapa
State, Brazil near 03N49W. Widely scattered convection is noted up
to 220 nm along either side of the ITCZ east of 40W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
northeastward from central Nicaragua to south of Jamaica.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at
Caribbean waters east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border, and south
of Jamaica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A large elongated upper-level low near the northern Yucatan
Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche, including the
Straits of Florida. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high just south of the
Texas- Louisiana border is providing light to gentle winds with 1
to 3 ft seas over the northwestern and north-central Gulf.
Moderate to with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the upcoming weekend, providing mainly gentle to moderate
winds. Showers and thunderstorms related to the upper-level low
will gradually shift into the west-central Gulf by Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Franklin just north of Hispaniola.

The southeastern quadrant of a large elongated upper-level low
over the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Cayman
Islands. Convergence between monsoonal west winds and southeast
winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Franklin is producing
numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the
Colombia and northwestern Venezuela coast, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Caribbean Basin.

Gentle to moderate monsoonal W to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
are present at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are seen across the central and eastern
basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
prevail at the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move farther north
of Hispaniola to near 23N68W Thu evening and 24N66W Fri evening.
This will allow conditions in the Caribbean improve through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Franklin north of Hispaniola, and a Gale Warning
associated with the remnants of Emily at the central Atlantic.

A cold front curves westward from a 1010 mb low near 31N73W
through 29N77W to beyond the Georgia-Florida border. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 50 nm
south of the front. Farther east, convergent southerly winds are
causing similar conditions southeast of Bermuda, north of 27N
between 56W and 61W. A 1010 mb low east of the northern Leeward
Islands at 10N59W, remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert is
producing scattered moderate convection from 15N to 19N between
54W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections at the beginning for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong E to SE winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are present north of 27N between 43W and 50W. Farther
east, gentle to moderate NNE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
dominate north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and 43W,
including the Canary Island. To the west outside the influence of
Franklin and the cold front, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas in moderate easterly swell are noted north of 20N between 50W
and the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft are evident near and north of the cold front. For the
tropical Atlantic, light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in a
mix E and S swell are found from 05N to 19N/20N between the
central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to near
23N68W Thu evening, 24N66W Fri evening, strengthen to a hurricane
Sat evening near 26N66W. Then it will move to near 29N 67.5W Sun
evening, and into the subtropical Atlantic near 33N67W Mon
evening as a 95 kt hurricane. The cold front will reach from near
31N66W to West Palm Beach, FL Thu evening before stalling and
gradually weakening. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough
seas will continue near and north of the front through Thu.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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