[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Franklin is now N of the Dominican Republic, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues. Tropical Storm
Franklin is centered near 20.6N 70.5W at 23/0000 UTC or 50 nm NNE
of Puerto Plata Dominican Republic, moving NNE at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, a turn
to the northeast and then east-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. The center of
Franklin will continue to move farther away from Dominican
Republic and then move over the southwestern Atlantic into the
weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several
days, and Franklin could be near hurricane strength over the
southwestern Atlantic by Saturday. Franklin is expected to
produce the following rainfall totals through Thursday:
Dominican Republic: 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts
around 16 inches, mainly across western and central portions.
Haiti: 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts near 8 inches,
mainly across eastern portions. Turks and Caicos: 1 to 3 inches,
mainly across the eastern islands. Minor coastal flooding is
possible along the coast of Hispaniola in areas of onshore winds
that should begin subsiding this evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure located
near 27N49W at 18Z or more than 1000 miles miles northeast of
the Leeward Islands (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily)
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development by tomorrow,
and this system is likely to regenerate into a tropical depression
or tropical storm late this week or this weekend when the system
moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. For
additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
This system has a medium chance of regenerating into a tropical
depression or tropical storm during the next 48 hr as the system
moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave (AL92) is along 37W from 07N to 21N, moving west
around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from
14N to 17N between 36W and 39W. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for some slow development through early
next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward
into the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and through 7
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Senegal near 14N17W, then continues SW to near to 12N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 12N18W to 06N30W to 06N40W to 04N50W. Scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted S of the ITCZ axis
fro 03N to 07N between 23W AND 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have flared up over the SE
Gulf, the Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean and western Cuba.
All this convective activity is the result of a broad upper-level
low and associated trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to the
Yucatan Peninsula. A coastal trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf
while a 1017 mb high pressure situated over the SW Louisiana
dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Some shower activity
is related to the surface trough over the Bay of Campeche. The
most recent scatterometer data show the wind shift associated
with the trough, with gentle to moderate NW winds on the W side
of the trough and light to gentle SE winds on the E side of the
trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are noted across
the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf, with gentle to moderate
NE to E winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1
to 3 ft in the NE Gulf, where mainly light winds are observed.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
into the weekend, providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas. Computer model suggests that the upper-level low
will move westward toward the SW Gulf over the next 12-24 hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of Hispaniola
into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant and
potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as
mudslides, particularly over the central Dominican Republic.
A strong band of rain, associated with the circulation of Franklin,
is over eastern Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. As
previously mentioned, numerous showers and thunderstorms have
flared up over the NW Caribbean and western Cuba. This
convective activity is the result of a broad upper- level low and
associated trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to the
Yucatan Peninsula.

The most recent satellite derived wind data showed a decent
swath of tropical-storm-force winds along the southern coast of
the Dominican Republic with seas to 12 to 15 ft while fresh to
strong E to SE winds were noted just N of Hispaniola. Moderate to
fresh SW winds dominate the remainder of the waters between
Hispaniola and the northern parts of western Venezuela and
Colombia, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds are over the NW Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except in
the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds are seen with seas generally 3 to 5 ft.
Seas of 1 to 3 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras and the E Caribbean,
roughly between the Lesser Antilles and 64W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to 21.4N 70.1W
Thu morning, 22.5N 68.8W Thu afternoon, 23.0N 67.5W Fri morning,
23.3N 66.3W Fri afternoon, 23.8N 65.6W Sat morning, and strengthen
to a hurricane near 24.6N 65.5W Sat afternoon. Conditions in the
Caribbean will improve tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
T.S. Franklin and the Gale Warning associated with the remnants
of Emily.

A cold front has entered the forecast waters, and extends from
31N72W to 30N77W to 31N81W. A narrow band of mainly low clouds
with possible showers is associated with the front. A ridge
dominates the Atlantic waters N of 20N and E of the remnants of
Emily. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
is observed between the ridge and the remnants of Emily,
covering mainly the waters from 24N to 31N between 42W and 47W
based on scatterometer data. A 1009 mb low pressure (remnants of
former Tropical Depression Gert) is east of the northern Leeward
Islands near 19N59W. A small cluster of moderate to strong
convection is to the SE of the low center near 16.5N67W.
Scatterometer data show very well the cyclonic circulation
associated with the remnants of Gert, with fresh to locally
strong winds within about 90 nm SE quadrant of the low center.
An area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds is between the
aforementioned tropical wave and the ridge. Outside of Franklin
and the remnants of Emily, light to gentle winds are noted across
the remainder of the basin, with seas of 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move to 21.4N
70.1W Thu morning, 22.5N 68.8W Thu afternoon, 23.0N 67.5W Fri
morning, 23.3N 66.3W Fri afternoon, 23.8N 65.6W Sat morning, and
strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 65.5W Sat afternoon. The cold
front will move across the waters E of northern Florida through
Thu followed by fresh to locally strong northeast winds and
building seas.

$$
GR
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