[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 18.9N 70.9W at 23/1500
UTC or 60 nm SSW of Puerto Plata Dominican Republic, moving N at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Franklin's center
made landfall a little to the south of Barahona, Dominican
Republic, shortly before 1200 UTC, and it is now moving northward
over the mountainous terrain of the country. Heavy rainfall from
Franklin is expected across much of Hispaniola into Thursday,
which is expected to produce significant and potentially life-
threatening flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides,
particularly over central Hispaniola. Recent observations shows
that close to 10 inches of rain has fallen in the past 24 hours near
Enriquillo- Barahona, Dominican Republic. A turn toward the
north- northeast is expected later today, followed by a northeast
to east- northeast motion with a decrease in forward speed
Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin
will move off the north coast of the Dominican Republic later
today and then move over the southwestern Atlantic into weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Franklin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low pressure system
(remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is near 26.8N 49.2W.
Near- gale to gale SE winds and seas at 9 to 10 ft are found up to
120 nm northeast of the low pressure center. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is depicted from 27N to 31N between
44W and 49W. The low is forecast to move N over the next 24-30
hours. This area of gales is forecast to continue in association
with the low until it moves N of the area by early Thu morning
with seas 9 to 11 ft. This system has a medium chance of
regenerating into a tropical depression or tropical storm during
the next 48 hr as the system moves northward over the subtropical
central Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 36W from 07N to 22N through a 1010 mb low
pressure (AL92) centered at 16.1N 36W, and moving west around 10
kt. Scattered showers are noted from 14N to 20N between 30W and
39W. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
favorable for some slow development through early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
central tropical Atlantic. The chance of development within the
next 48 hours is low. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N17W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N17W to 06N34W and resumes 05N37W to
04N49W. No significant convection is depicted in association with
the trough. Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVE section for
convection in the tropical Atlantic.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated upper-level low is located between Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula. This trough is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the southeastern Gulf. A surface
trough is producing isolated moderate convection in the western
Gulf. Another trough located in the central Gulf is producing
similar convection. A broad surface ridge extends southward from
a modest 1015 mb high near 29N92W to the south- central Gulf.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail west
of the Straits of Florida through the south- central Gulf. Over
the north-central and south-west Gulf, winds are gentle and seas
are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will build SW into the Gulf
today, leading to quiescent conditions through the end of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Conditions associated with Tropical Storm Franklin are occurring
north of 15N between 66W and 74W. Please refer to the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above for more information on Tropical Storm
Franklin, including the life- threatening flooding threat from
heavy rainfall today for the Dominican Republic.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough over the far NW Gulf, convergent
easterly trades are generating scattered thunderstorms across the
NW Caribbean. Outside of the area near Franklin described in the
paragraph above, winds are moderate or less, and seas are 6 ft or
less across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin is near 18.9N 70.9W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Franklin will move to 20.5N 70.4W this evening, 22.1N
69.5W Thu morning, 22.8N 68.2W Thu evening, 23.1N 67.0W Fri
morning, 23.4N 66.0W Fri evening, and strengthen to a hurricane
near 24.3N 65.7W Sat morning. Franklin will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 27.3N 66.7W early Sun. Conditions in
the Caribbean will improve tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
the Gale Warning associated with the remnants of Emily.

An upper-level trough is producing scattered moderate convection
north of 27N between 59W and 64W. A 1009 mb low pressure
(remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert) is east of the
northern Leeward Islands near 18.5N 59.2W. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 17N to 19N between 57W and 59W.

Away from the areas near Franklin and the remnants of Emily, winds
across the basin are light to moderate and seas are 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin is near 18.9N 70.9W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Franklin will move to 20.5N 70.4W this evening, 22.1N
69.5W Thu morning, 22.8N 68.2W Thu evening, 23.1N 67.0W Fri
morning, 23.4N 66.0W Fri evening, and strengthen to a hurricane
near 24.3N 65.7W Sat morning. Franklin will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 27.3N 66.7W early Sun. A cold front
is expected to move across the waters E of northern Florida this
afternoon through Thu followed by fresh to locally strong
northeast winds and building seas.

$$
KRV
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