[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 17.4N 71.3W at 23/0900
UTC or 105 nm SW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic moving N at
9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas range
from 13 to 15 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted within 210
nm of the center in the E semicircle, including over the Dominican
Republic. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm NW
quadrant. A north-northeastward motion is expected for the next
day or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-
northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Franklin is expected to cross the island of Hispaniola today and
emerge over the southwestern Atlantic waters later today or
tonight. Some weakening is likely today while Franklin moves over
Hispaniola, followed by re-strengthening beginning on Thursday
after the center moves over the Atlantic. Heavy rainfall from
Franklin is expected across much of Hispaniola into Thursday. The
heavy rainfall is expected to produce significant and potentially
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over the Dominican
Republic today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low pressure system
(remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is near 26N49W. Near-
gale to gale SE winds and seas at 9 to 10 ft are found up to 120
nm northeast of the low pressure center. Numerous moderate
convection is flaring up from 25N to 31N between 43W and 50W. The
low is forecast to move N over the next 24-30 hours. This area of
gales is forecast to continue in association with the low until
it moves N of the area by early Thu morning with seas 9 to 11 ft.
This system has a medium chance of regenerating into a tropical
depression or tropical storm during the next 48 hr as the system
moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 35W from 07N to 22N through a 1009 mb low
pressure (AL92) centered at 16N35W, and moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered showers are noted from 14.5N to 21N between 31W and 39W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for some development late this week. The chance of development
within the next 48 hours is low. The system is expected to move
WNW to NW across the central tropical Atlantic into the weekend.
Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 15N17W to 13N24W to AL92 at 16N35W to 12N40W. The
ITCZ continues from 12N40W to 10N49W to 11N58W. No significant
convection is noted other than the convection mentioned above in
the Tropical Waves section.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
northeastward from Costa Rica to near 14N76W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea and near the northwestern Colombia coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated upper-level low across the Florida Straits near
23N83W is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across portions of the eastern Gulf. Convergent southeasterly
winds are causing similar conditions over the southwestern Gulf.
A broad surface ridge extends southward from a modest 1015 mb
high near 29N87W to the south-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh E
winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail from the Straits of Florida through
the south-central Gulf to the west-central Gulf. Near the high
pressure over the NE Gulf, winds are gentle and seas are 2 to 4
ft.

The remnant low of Harold continues to move farther inland into
deep south Texas and northern Mexico. Seas off the coast of south
Texas will subside early this morning. Conditions will improve in
the NW Gulf today as high pressure builds in over the area from
the NE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Conditions associated with Tropical Storm Franklin are occurring
north of 15N between 67W and 73W. Refer to the Special Features
section for more information on Tropical Storm Franklin, including
the life-threatening flooding threat from heavy rainfall today for
the Dominican Republic.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough over the far NW Gulf, convergent
easterly trades are generating scattered thunderstorms across the
NW Caribbean. Outside of the area near Franklin described in the
paragraph above, winds are 20 kt or less, and seas are 6 ft or
less across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move inland over
the Dominican Republic to near 19N71W this afternoon, to the
Atlantic Ocean near 22N69W Thu afternoon, 23N67W Fri afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.5N66W Fri night, move to near
26N67W Sat night, and to near 29.5N 68W Sun night. Conditions in
the Caribbean will improve tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the Gale
Warning associated with the remnants of Emily.

An upper-level trough is producing scattered moderate convection
north of 27N between 58W and 63W. Another area of thunderstorms is
noted from 30N to 31N between 76W and 79W. A 1009 mb low
pressure (remnants of former Tropical Depression Gert) is east of
the northern Leeward Islands near 18N59W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is evident from 15N to 19N between 55W
and 59W.

Away from the areas near Franklin and the remnants of Emily, winds
across the basin are light to moderate and seas are 3-6 ft. The
area of seas in excess of 6 ft near the remnants of Emily
stretches from north of 22N between 36W and 54W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Franklin will move inland over
the Dominican Republic to near 19N71W this afternoon, to the
Atlantic Ocean near 22N69W Thu afternoon, 23N67W Fri afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.5N66W Fri night, move to near
26N67W Sat night, and to near 29.5N 68W Sun night. A cold front is
expected to move across the waters E of northern Florida this
afternoon through Thu followed by fresh to locally strong
northeast winds and building seas.

$$
Hagen
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